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Estimation of Maximum Wall Thickness Loss of Five DSTs (AN-107, AP-102, AW-101, AZ-102, and SY-101)

Description: The DST Integrity Plan requires the ultrasonic wall thickness measurement of two vertical scans of the tank primary wall from a single riser. The resulting measurements are then used in an extreme value methodology to predict the minimum wall thickness expected for the entire tank. The methodology was developed in previous work by the authors of this report. A component of the methodology is to consider the possible impact of riser differences had multiple risers instead been used. The approach is based on previous analyses of Tank AY-101 which had measurements taken from multiple risers. This report presents estimated maximum wall thickness loss for five DST's with associated uncertainty estimation and confidence bounds. Several sources of variability are incorporated since the individual sources cannot be separated. These sources include original manufacturing plate thickness and the precision of the measurement process, as well as loss due to corrosion, the actual feature of interest.
Date: September 17, 2005
Creator: Weier, Dennis R. & Anderson, Kevin K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ultrasonic Examination of Double-Shell Tank 241-AN-102 Examination Completed July 2008.

Description: AREVA Federal Services LLC (AFS), under a contract from CH2M Hill Hanford Group (CH2M Hill), has performed an ultrasonic examination of selected portions of Double-Shell Tank 241-AN-102. PNNL is responsible for preparing a report(s) that describes the results of the AFS ultrasonic examinations.
Date: August 28, 2008
Creator: Pardini, Allan F.; Weier, Dennis R. & Anderson, Kevin K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ultrasonic Examination of Double-Shell Tank 241-AP-107 Examination Completed February 2008

Description: AREVA Federal Services LLC (AFS), under a contract from CH2M HILL Hanford Group (CH2M HILL), has performed an ultrasonic examination of selected portions of Double-Shell Tank 241-AP-107. The purpose of this examination was to provide information that could be used to evaluate the integrity of the wall of the primary tank. The requirements for the ultrasonic examination of Tank 241-AP-107 were to detect, characterize (identify, size, and locate), and record measurements made of any wall thinning, pitting, or cracks that might be present in the wall of the primary tank. Any measurements that exceed the requirements set forth in the Engineering Task Plan (ETP), RPP-Plan-34301 (Castleberry 2007) and summarized on page 1 of this document, are to be reported to CH2M HILL and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for further evaluation. Under the contract with CH2M HILL, all data is to be recorded on electronic media and paper copies of all measurements are provided to PNNL for third-party evaluation. PNNL is responsible for preparing a report(s) that describes the results of the AFS ultrasonic examinations.
Date: September 29, 2008
Creator: Pardini, Allan F.; Weier, Dennis R. & Anderson, Kevin K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ultrasonic Examination of Double-Shell Tank 241-AP-107 Examination Completed February 2008.

Description: AREVA NC Inc. (AREVA), under a contract from CH2M Hill Hanford Group (CH2M Hill), has performed an ultrasonic examination of selected portions of Double-Shell Tank 241-AP-107. PNNL is responsible for preparing a report(s) that describes the results of the AREVA ultrasonic examinations.
Date: April 28, 2008
Creator: Pardini, Allan F.; Weier, Dennis R. & Anderson, Kevin K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Predicting detection probabilities for gas mixtures over HSI backgrounds

Description: Detecting and identifying weak gaseous plumes using thermal image data acquired by airborne detectors is an area of ongoing research. This contribution investigates the relative detectability of gas mixtures over different backgrounds and a range of plume temperatures that are warmer and cooler than the ground. The focus of this analysis to support mission planning. When the mission is intended to collect evidence of particular chemicals, the analysis presented is this report can be used to determine conditions under which useful data can be acquired. Initial analyses can be used to determine whether LWIR is useful for the anticipated gas, temperature, and background combination.
Date: December 29, 2009
Creator: Tardiff, Mark F.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Anderson, Kevin K. & Chilton, Lawrence
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Nonlinear Bayesian Algorithms for Gas Plume Detection and Estimation from Hyper-spectral Thermal Image Data

Description: This paper presents a nonlinear Bayesian regression algorithm for the purpose of detecting and estimating gas plume content from hyper-spectral data. Remote sensing data, by its very nature, is collected under less controlled conditions than laboratory data. As a result, the physics-based model that is used to describe the relationship between the observed remotesensing spectra, and the terrestrial (or atmospheric) parameters that we desire to estimate, is typically littered with many unknown "nuisance" parameters (parameters that we are not interested in estimating, but also appear in the model). Bayesian methods are well-suited for this context as they automatically incorporate the uncertainties associated with all nuisance parameters into the error estimates of the parameters of interest. The nonlinear Bayesian regression methodology is illustrated on realistic simulated data from a three-layer model for longwave infrared (LWIR) measurements from a passive instrument. This shows that this approach should permit more accurate estimation as well as a more reasonable description of estimate uncertainty.
Date: June 13, 2007
Creator: Heasler, Patrick G.; Posse, Christian; Hylden, Jeff L. & Anderson, Kevin K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Comparison of Two Gas Selection Methodologies: An Application of Bayesian Model Averaging

Description: One goal of hyperspectral imagery analysis is the detection and characterization of plumes. Characterization includes identifying the gases in the plumes, which is a model selection problem. Two gas selection methods compared in this report are Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and minimum Akaike information criterion (AIC) stepwise regression (SR). Simulated spectral data from a three-layer radiance transfer model were used to compare the two methods. Test gases were chosen to span the types of spectra observed, which exhibit peaks ranging from broad to sharp. The size and complexity of the search libraries were varied. Background materials were chosen to either replicate a remote area of eastern Washington or feature many common background materials. For many cases, BMA and SR performed the detection task comparably in terms of the receiver operating characteristic curves. For some gases, BMA performed better than SR when the size and complexity of the search library increased. This is encouraging because we expect improved BMA performance upon incorporation of prior information on background materials and gases.
Date: March 31, 2006
Creator: Renholds, Andrea S.; Thompson, Sandra E.; Anderson, Kevin K. & Chilton, Lawrence K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ultrasonic Examination of Double-Shell Tank 241-AW-101 Examination Completed February 2009.

Description: AREVA Federal Services LLC (AFS), under a contract from Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), has performed an ultrasonic examination of selected portions of Double-Shell Tank 241-AW-101. PNNL is responsible for preparing a report(s) that describes the results of the AFS ultrasonic examinations.
Date: March 18, 2009
Creator: Pardini, Allan F.; Weier, Dennis R. & Anderson, Kevin K.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Ultrasonic Examination of Double-Shell Tank 241-AW-105 Examination Completed April 2009.

Description: AREVA Federal Services LLC (AFS), under a contract from Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS), has performed an ultrasonic examination of selected portions of Double-Shell Tank 241-AW-105. PNNL is responsible for preparing a report(s) that describes the results of the AFS ultrasonic examinations.
Date: May 31, 2009
Creator: Pardini, Allan F.; Weier, Dennis R.; Anderson, Kevin K. & Hathaway, John E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry Time Spectral Analysis for Spent Fuel Assay: FY12 Status Report

Description: Executive Summary Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration, of which PNNL is a part, to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today’s confirmatory methods. This document is a progress report for FY2012 PNNL analysis and algorithm development. Progress made by PNNL in FY2012 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS analysis and algorithms applied to used fuel assemblies. PNNL further refined the semi-empirical model developed in FY2011 based on singular value decomposition (SVD) to numerically account for the effects of self-shielding. The average uncertainty in the Pu mass across the NGSI-64 fuel assemblies was shown to be less than 3% using only six calibration assemblies with a 2% uncertainty in the isotopic masses. When calibrated against the six NGSI-64 fuel assemblies, the algorithm was able to determine the total Pu mass within <2% uncertainty for the 27 diversion cases also developed under NGSI. Two purely empirical algorithms were developed that do not require the use of Pu isotopic fission chambers. The semi-empirical and purely empirical algorithms were successfully tested using MCNPX simulations as well applied to experimental data measured by RPI using their LSDS. The algorithms were able to describe the 235U masses of the RPI measurements with an average uncertainty of 2.3%. Analyses were conducted that provided valuable insight with ...
Date: September 28, 2012
Creator: Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Casella, Andrew M.; Siciliano, Edward R. & Warren, Glen A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry Time Spectral Analysis for Spent Fuel Assay: FY11 Status Report

Description: Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&amp;D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration, of which PNNL is a part, to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today's confirmatory assay methods. This document is a progress report for FY2011 PNNL analysis and algorithm development. Progress made by PNNL in FY2011 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS analysis and algorithms applied to used fuel. PNNL developed an empirical model based on calibration of the LSDS to responses generated from well-characterized used fuel. The empirical model, which accounts for self-shielding effects using empirical basis vectors calculated from the singular value decomposition (SVD) of a matrix containing the true self-shielding functions of the used fuel assembly models. The potential for the direct and independent assay of the sum of the masses of 239Pu and 241Pu to within approximately 3% over a wide used fuel parameter space was demonstrated. Also, in FY2011, PNNL continued to develop an analytical model. Such efforts included the addition of six more non-fissile absorbers in the analytical shielding function and the non-uniformity of the neutron flux across the LSDS assay chamber. A hybrid analytical-empirical approach was developed to determine the mass of total Pu (sum of the masses of 239Pu, 240Pu, and 241Pu), which is an important quantity in safeguards. Results using this hybrid method were of ...
Date: September 30, 2011
Creator: Kulisek, Jonathan A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Bowyer, Sonya M.; Casella, Andrew M.; Gesh, Christopher J. & Warren, Glen A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

An environmental sampling model for combining judgment and randomly placed samples

Description: In the event of the release of a lethal agent (such as anthrax) inside a building, law enforcement and public health responders take samples to identify and characterize the contamination. Sample locations may be rapidly chosen based on available incident details and professional judgment. To achieve greater confidence of whether or not a room or zone was contaminated, or to certify that detectable contamination is not present after decontamination, we consider a Bayesian model for combining the information gained from both judgment and randomly placed samples. We investigate the sensitivity of the model to the parameter inputs and make recommendations for its practical use.
Date: August 23, 2007
Creator: Sego, Landon H.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Matzke, Brett D.; Sieber, Karl; Shulman, Stanley; Bennett, James et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Acceptance sampling using judgmental and randomly selected samples

Description: We present a Bayesian model for acceptance sampling where the population consists of two groups, each with different levels of risk of containing unacceptable items. Expert opinion, or judgment, may be required to distinguish between the high and low-risk groups. Hence, high-risk items are likely to be identifed (and sampled) using expert judgment, while the remaining low-risk items are sampled randomly. We focus on the situation where all observed samples must be acceptable. Consequently, the objective of the statistical inference is to quantify the probability that a large percentage of the unsampled items in the population are also acceptable. We demonstrate that traditional (frequentist) acceptance sampling and simpler Bayesian formulations of the problem are essentially special cases of the proposed model. We explore the properties of the model in detail, and discuss the conditions necessary to ensure that required samples sizes are non-decreasing function of the population size. The method is applicable to a variety of acceptance sampling problems, and, in particular, to environmental sampling where the objective is to demonstrate the safety of reoccupying a remediated facility that has been contaminated with a lethal agent.
Date: September 1, 2010
Creator: Sego, Landon H.; Shulman, Stanley A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Wilson, John E.; Pulsipher, Brent A. & Sieber, W. Karl
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Lead Slowing Down Spectrometer Status Report

Description: This report documents the progress that has been completed in the first half of FY2012 in the MPACT-funded Lead Slowing Down Spectrometer project. Significant progress has been made on the algorithm development. We have an improve understanding of the experimental responses in LSDS for fuel-related material. The calibration of the ultra-depleted uranium foils was completed, but the results are inconsistent from measurement to measurement. Future work includes developing a conceptual model of an LSDS system to assay plutonium in used fuel, improving agreement between simulations and measurement, design of a thorium fission chamber, and evaluation of additional detector techniques.
Date: June 7, 2012
Creator: Warren, Glen A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Bonebrake, Eric; Casella, Andrew M.; Danon, Yaron; Devlin, M. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry for Spent Fuel Assay: FY12 Status Report

Description: Executive Summary The Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign is supporting a multi-institutional collaboration to study the feasibility of using Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS) to conduct direct, independent and accurate assay of fissile isotopes in used fuel assemblies. The collaboration consists of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), Idaho State University (ISU). There are three main challenges to implementing LSDS to assay used fuel assemblies. These challenges are the development of an algorithm for interpreting the data with an acceptable accuracy for the fissile masses, the development of suitable detectors for the technique, and the experimental benchmarking of the approach. This report is a summary of the progress in these areas made by the collaboration during FY2012. Significant progress was made on the project in FY2012. Extensive characterization of a “semi-empirical” algorithm was conducted. For example, we studied the impact on the accuracy of this algorithm by the minimization of the calibration set, uncertainties in the calibration masses, and by the choice of time window. Issues such a lead size, number of required neutrons, placement of the neutron source and the impact of cadmium around the detectors were also studied. In addition, new algorithms were developed that do not require the use of plutonium fission chambers. These algorithms were applied to measurement data taken by RPI and shown to determine the 235U mass within 4%. For detectors, a new concept for a fast neutron detector involving 4He recoil from neutron scattering was investigated. The detector has the potential to provide a couple of orders of magnitude more sensitivity than 238U fission chambers. Progress was also made on the more conventional approach of using 232Th fission chambers as fast neutron detectors. For benchmarking measurements, ...
Date: October 1, 2012
Creator: Warren, Glen A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Casella, Andrew M.; Danon, Yaron; Devlin, M.; Gavron, A. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Lead Slowing-Down Spectrometry for Spent Fuel Assay: FY11 Status Report

Description: Executive Summary Developing a method for the accurate, direct, and independent assay of the fissile isotopes in bulk materials (such as used fuel) from next-generation domestic nuclear fuel cycles is a goal of the Office of Nuclear Energy, Fuel Cycle R&D, Material Protection and Control Technology (MPACT) Campaign. To meet this goal, MPACT supports a multi-institutional collaboration to study the feasibility of Lead Slowing Down Spectroscopy (LSDS). This technique is an active nondestructive assay method that has the potential to provide independent, direct measurement of Pu and U isotopic masses in used fuel with an uncertainty considerably lower than the approximately 10% typical of today’s confirmatory assay methods. This document is a progress report for FY2011 collaboration activities. Progress made by the collaboration in FY2011 continues to indicate the promise of LSDS techniques applied to used fuel. PNNL developed an empirical model based on calibration of the LSDS to responses generated from well-characterized used fuel. The empirical model demonstrated the potential for the direct and independent assay of the sum of the masses of 239Pu and 241Pu to within approximately 3% over a wide used fuel parameter space. Similar results were obtained using a perturbation approach developed by LANL. Benchmark measurements have been successfully conducted at LANL and at RPI using their respective LSDS instruments. The ISU and UNLV collaborative effort is focused on the fabrication and testing of prototype fission chambers lined with ultra-depleted 238U and 232Th, and uranium deposition on a stainless steel disc using spiked U3O8 from room temperature ionic liquid was successful, with improving thickness obtained. In FY2012, the collaboration plans a broad array of activities. PNNL will focus on optimizing its empirical model and minimizing its reliance on calibration data, as well continuing efforts on developing an analytical model. Additional measurements are planned at LANL ...
Date: August 1, 2011
Creator: Warren, Glen A.; Casella, Andrew M.; Haight, R. C.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Danon, Yaron; Hatchett, D. et al.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department