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The role of nuclear weapons in the year 2000

Description: This publication presents the proceedings for the workshop, The Role of Nuclear Weapons in the Year 2000, held on October 22--24, 1990. The workshop participants considered the changing nature of deterrence and of our strategic relationship with the Soviet Union, the impact of nuclear proliferation on regional conflicts, and ways that the nuclear forces might be restructured to reflect new political circumstances.
Date: January 1, 1990
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Confirming the Lanchestrian linear-logarithmic model of attrition

Description: This paper is the fourth in a series of reports on the breakthrough research in historical validation of attrition in conflict. Significant defense policy decisions, including weapons acquisition and arms reduction, are based in part on models of conflict. Most of these models are driven by their attrition algorithms, usually forms of the Lanchester square and linear laws. None of these algorithms have been validated. The results of this paper confirm the results of earlier papers, using a large database of historical results. The homogeneous linear-logarithmic Lanchestrian attrition model is validated to the extent possible with current initial and final force size data and is consistent with the Iwo Jima data. A particular differential linear-logarithmic model is described that fits the data very well. A version of Helmbold's victory predicting parameter is also confirmed, with an associated probability function. 37 refs., 73 figs., 68 tabs.
Date: December 1, 1990
Creator: Hartley, D.S. III.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Freedom to mix vulnerable offensive and defensive forces

Description: The freedom to mix offense and defense to expand without diminishing either side`s second strike capability is shown to be counterproductive at large numbers of missiles; effective at intermediate numbers; and progressively less effective at modest numbers. Solutions are less stable for large second strikes.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Systems engineering analysis of kinetic energy weapon concepts

Description: This study examines, from a systems engineering design perspective, the potential of kinetic energy weapons being used in the role of a conventional strategic weapon. Within the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, strategic weapon experience falls predominantly in the nuclear weapons arena. The techniques developed over the years may not be the most suitable methodologies for use in a new design/development arena. For this reason a more fundamental approach was pursued with the objective of developing an information base from which design decisions might be made concerning the conventional strategic weapon system concepts. The study examined (1) a number of generic missions, (2) the effects of a number of damage mechanisms from a physics perspective, (3) measures of effectiveness (MOE`s), and (4) a design envelope for kinetic energy weapon concepts. With the base of information a cut at developing a set of high-level system requirements was made, and a number of concepts were assessed against these requirements.
Date: June 1, 1996
Creator: Senglaub, M.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Plus c`est la meme chose: The future of nuclear weapons in Europe

Description: Since the end of the Cold War, the United States perhaps more than any other nuclear weapon state has deeply questioned the future role of nuclear weapons, both in a strategic sense and in Europe. It is probably the United States that has raised the most questions about the continuing need for and efficacy of nuclear weapons, and has expressed the greatest concerns about the negative consequences of continuing nuclear weapons deployment. In the US, this period of questioning has now come to a pause, if not a conclusion. In late 1994 the United States decided to continue to pursue reductions in numbers of nuclear weapons as well as other changes designed to reduce the dangers associated with the possession of nuclear weapons. But at the same time the US concluded that some number of nuclear forces would continue to be needed for national security for the foreseeable future. These necessary nuclear forces include a continuing but greatly reduced stockpile of nuclear bombs deployed in Europe under NATO`s New Strategic Concept. If further changes to the US position on nuclear weapons in Europe are to occur, it is likely to be after many years, and only in the context of dramatic additional improvements in the political and geo-political climate in and around Europe. The future role of nuclear weapons in Europe, as discussed in this report, depends in part on past and future decisions by the United States. but it must also be noted that other states that deploy nuclear weapons in Europe--Britain, France, and Russia, as well as the NATO alliance--have shown little inclination to discontinue their deployment of such weapons, whatever the United States might choose to do in the future.
Date: July 1, 1996
Creator: Maaranen, S.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Operations other than war: Requirements for analysis tools research report

Description: This report documents the research effort to determine the requirements for new or improved analysis tools to support decisions at the strategic and operational levels for military Operations Other than War (OOTW). The work was performed for the Commander in Chief, U.S. Pacific Command (USCINCPAC). The data collection was based on workshops attended by experts in OOTWs: analysis personnel from each of the Combatant Commands, the Services, the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Joint Staff, and other knowledgeable personnel. Further data were gathered from other workshops and conferences and from the literature. The results of this research begin with the creation of a taxonomy of OOTWs: categories of operations, attributes of operations, and tasks requiring analytical support. The tasks are connected to the Joint Staff`s Universal Joint Task List (UJTL). Historical OOTWs are analyzed to produce frequency distributions by category and responsible CINC. The analysis products are synthesized into a list of requirements for analytical tools and definitions of the requirements. The report concludes with a timeline or roadmap for satisfying the requirements.
Date: December 1, 1996
Creator: Hartley, D.S. III
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Building on and spinning off: Sandia National Labs` creation of sensors for Vietnam

Description: This paper discusses Sandia National Laboratories` development of new technologies for use in the Vietnam War - specifically the seismic sensors deployed to detect troop and vehicle movement - first along the Ho Chi Minh Trail and later in perimeter defense for American military encampments in South Vietnam. Although the sensor story is a small one, it is interesting because it dovetails nicely with our understanding of the war in Vietnam and its frustrations; of the creation of new technologies for war and American enthusiasm for that technology; and of a technological military and the organizational research and a m am development structure created to support it. Within the defense establishment, the sensors were proposed within the context of a larger concept - that of a barrier to prevent the infiltration of troops and supplies from North Vietnam to the South. All of the discussion of the best way to fight in Vietnam is couched in the perception that this was a different kind of war than America was used to fighting. The emphasis was on countering the problems posed by guerrilla/revolutionary warfare and eventually by the apparent constraints of being involved in a military action, not an outright war. The American response was to find the right technology to do the job - to control the war by applying a technological tincture to its wounds and to make the war familiar and fightable on American terms. And, when doubts were raised about the effectiveness of applying existing technologies (namely, the bombing of North Vietnam and Laos), the doubters turned to new technologies. The sensors that were developed for use in Vietnam were a direct product of this sort of thinking - on the part of the engineers at Sandia who created the sensors, the civilian scientific advisors who recommended ...
Date: December 31, 1996
Creator: Ullrich, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Advanced information science and object-oriented technology for information management applications

Description: The role of the military has been undergoing rapid change since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The kinds of missions the US military has been asked to participate in have often fallen into the category of {open_quotes}Military Operations Other Than War{close_quotes} and those involving military responses have been more of a surgical nature directed against different kinds of threats, like rogue states or in response to terrorist actions. As a result, the requirements on the military planner and analyst have also had to change dramatically. For example, preparing response options now requires rapid turnaround and a highly flexible simulation capability. This in turn requires that the planner or analyst have access to sophisticated information science and simulation technologies. In this paper, we shall discuss how advanced information science and object-oriented technologies can be used in advanced information management applications. We shall also discuss how these technologies and tools can be applied to DoD applications by presenting examples with a system developed at Argonne, the Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS). DIAS has been developed to exploit advanced information science and simulation technologies to provide tools for future planners and analysts.
Date: October 1, 1996
Creator: Hummel, J.R. & Swietlik, C.E.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Fluorescence cross section measurements of biological agent simulants

Description: Fluorescence is a powerful technique that has potential uses in detection and characterization of biological aerosols both in the battlefield and in civilian environments. Fluorescence techniques can be used with ultraviolet (UV) light detection and ranging (LIDAR) equipment to detect biological aerosol clouds at a distance, to provide early warning of a biological attack, and to track an potentially noxious cloud. Fluorescence can also be used for detection in a point sensor to monitor biological materials and to distinguish agents from benign aerosols. This work is part of a continuing program by the Army`s Chemical and Biological Defense Command to characterized the optical properties of biological agents. Reported here are ultraviolet fluorescence measurements of Bacillus megaterium and Bacillus Globigii aerosols suspended in an electrodynamic particle trap. Fluorescence spectra of a common atmospheric aerosol, pine pollen, are also presented.
Date: November 1, 1996
Creator: Stephens, J.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: A conceptual development for the cooperative monitoring of limited-force deployment zones

Description: Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of North and South Korea could decrease the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and help create an environment in which to negotiate a peace regime. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories collaborated to identify potential CBMs and define associated monitoring. The project is a conceptual analysis of political and technical options for confidence building that might be feasible in Korea at some future time. KIDA first analyzed current security conditions and options for CBMs. Their conclusions are presented as a hypothetical agreement to strengthen the Armistice Agreement by establishing Limited Force Deployment Zones along the Military Demarcation Line. The goal of the hypothetical agreement is to increase mutual security and build confidence. The CMC then used KIDA`s scenario to develop a strategy for cooperative monitoring the agreement. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing and sharing of agreed information among parties to an agreement and typically relies on the use of commercially available technology. A cooperative monitoring regime must be consistent with the agreement`s terms; the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors in the Korean setting; and the capabilities of monitoring technologies. This report describes the security situation on the Korean peninsula, relevant precedents from other regions, the hypothetical agreement for reducing military tensions, a monitoring strategy for the hypothetical Korean agreement, examples of implementation, and a description of applicable monitoring technologies and procedures.
Date: April 1, 1997
Creator: Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R.; Nam, M.K.; Moon, K.K. & Kim, M.J.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

ADANS database specification

Description: The purpose of the Air Mobility Command (AMC) Deployment Analysis System (ADANS) Database Specification (DS) is to describe the database organization and storage allocation and to provide the detailed data model of the physical design and information necessary for the construction of the parts of the database (e.g., tables, indexes, rules, defaults). The DS includes entity relationship diagrams, table and field definitions, reports on other database objects, and a description of the ADANS data dictionary. ADANS is the automated system used by Headquarters AMC and the Tanker Airlift Control Center (TACC) for airlift planning and scheduling of peacetime and contingency operations as well as for deliberate planning. ADANS also supports planning and scheduling of Air Refueling Events by the TACC and the unit-level tanker schedulers. ADANS receives input in the form of movement requirements and air refueling requests. It provides a suite of tools for planners to manipulate these requirements/requests against mobility assets and to develop, analyze, and distribute schedules. Analysis tools are provided for assessing the products of the scheduling subsystems, and editing capabilities support the refinement of schedules. A reporting capability provides formatted screen, print, and/or file outputs of various standard reports. An interface subsystem handles message traffic to and from external systems. The database is an integral part of the functionality summarized above.
Date: January 16, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Stability versus first strike costs during deep reductions

Description: Reducing missile forces ultimately increases stability. However, for vulnerable forces, that increase is accompanied by an increase in first strike costs, which would disincentivize force reductions. For survivable forces there is a useful region in which weapon reductions could increase stability while reducing first strike costs.
Date: September 10, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of sequential exchanges between vulnerable forces

Description: A multi-stage and -step analysis of sequences of crises or exchanges shows that aggressiveness on one side can induce rapid counter-value strikes by the other as well and knowledge that opponents will later become less aggressive does not mitigate the tendency to strike early in crises.
Date: September 4, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Automated military unit identification in battlefield simulation

Description: It is the nature of complex systems, composed of many interacting elements, that unanticipated phenomena develop. Computer simulation, in which the elements of a complex system are implemented as interacting software objects (actors), is an effective tool to study collective and emergent phenomena in complex systems. A new cognitive architecture is described for constructing simulation actors that can, like the intelligent elements they represent adapt to unanticipated conditions. This cognitive architecture generates trial behaviors, estimates their fitness using an internal representation of the system, and has an internal apparatus for evolving a population of trial behaviors to changing environmental conditions. A specific simulation actor is developed to evaluate surveillance radar images of moving vehicles on battlefields. The vehicle cluster location, characterization and discrimination processes currently performed by intelligent human operators were implemented into a parameterized formation recognition process by using a newly developed family of 2D cluster filters. The mechanics of these cluster filters are described. Preliminary results are presented in which this GSM actor demonstrates the ability not only to recognize military formations under prescribed conditions, but to adapt its behavior to unanticipated conditions that develop in the complex simulated battlefield system.
Date: May 1, 1997
Creator: Stroud, P. & Gordon, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Simulation and real-time optimal scheduling: a framework for integration

Description: Traditional scheduling and simulation models of the same system differ in several fundamental respects. These include the definition of a schedule, the existence of an objective function which orders schedules and indicates the performance of a given schedule according to specific criteria, and the level of fidelity at which the items are represented and processed through he system. This paper presents a conceptual, object-oriented, architecture for combining a traditional, high-level, scheduling system with a detailed, process- level, discrete-event simulation. A multi-echelon planning framework is established in the context of modeling end-to-end military deployments with the focus on detailed seaport operations.
Date: February 1, 1997
Creator: Macal, C.M.; Nevins, M.R.; Williams, M.K. & Joines, J.C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Stability of regional configurations

Description: At moderate force levels the first strike stability index is proportional to the first strike cost, so as the attacker minimizes attack costs, he automatically minimizes stability. Weapons grow rapidly and saturate to levels comparable to the number of value targets held at risk. This growth could appear destabilizing to dominant regional powers, whose response could in turn appear threatening to the major nuclear powers, which could slow or halt efforts towards deep reductions. The fundamental way to alter these pressures appears to be through reducing the likelihood of regional crises by removing these fundamental antagonisms.
Date: August 13, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The use of combustible metals in explosive incendiary devices

Description: We have investigated tailoring damage effects of explosive devices by addition of unconventional materials, specifically combustible metals. Initial small-scale as well as full-scale testing has been performed. The explosives functioned to disperse and ignite these materials. Incendiary, enhanced-blast, and fragment-damage effect have been identified. These types of effects can be used to extend the damage done to hardened facilities. In other cases it is desirable to disable the target with minimal collateral damage. Use of unconventional materials allows the capability to tailor the damage and effects of explosive devices for these and other applications. Current work includes testing of an incendiary warhead for a penetrator.
Date: August 1, 1996
Creator: Fischer, S.H. & Grubelich, M.C.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Smart bridge: a tool for estimating the military load classification of bridges

Description: A major consideration in planning and executing military deployments is determining the routes available for moving troops and equipment. Part of this planning means ensuring that all of the bridges along the routes are able to support the specialized equipment needed. Because few trained and experienced bridge analysts are available, an automated tool is required to assist military engineers and planners in quickly and accurately determining the capacity or Military Load Classification of bridges. This tool must be flexible enough to handle various types of bridges, run on multiple platforms (Sun UNIX and PC Windows), be usable by engineers with various levels of experience, and be able to utilize various analysis methods depending on the amount of information available.
Date: February 1, 1997
Creator: Van Groningen, C.N. & Paddock, R.A.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Addressing questions about including environmental effects in the DMSO HLA

Description: The Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is developing a High Level Architecture (HLA) to support the DOD Modeling and Simulation (M and S) community. Many, if not all, of the simulations involve the environment in some fashion. In some applications, the simulation takes place in an acknowledged environment without any environmental functionality being taken into account. The Joint Training Federation Prototype (JTFp) is one of several prototype efforts that have been created to provide a test of the DMSO HLA. In addition to addressing the applicability of the HLA to a training community, the JTFp is also one of two prototype efforts that is explicitly including environmental effects in their simulation effort. These two prototyping efforts are examining the issues associated with the inclusion of the environment in an HLA federation. In deciding whether or not to include an environmental federation in the JTFp effort, a number of questions have been raised about the environment and the HLA. These questions have raised the issue of incompatibility between the environment and the HLA and also shown that there is something unique about including the environment in simulations. The purpose of this White Paper, which was developed with inputs from the National Air and Space [Warfare] Model Program among others, is to address the various questions that have been posed about including environmental effects in an HLA simulation.
Date: October 1, 1996
Creator: Hummel, J.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Attack optimization at moderate force levels

Description: Optimal offensive missile allocations for moderate offensive and defensive forces are derived and used to study their sensitivity to force structure parameters levels. It is shown that the first strike cost is a product of the number of missiles and a function of the optimum allocation. Thus, the conditions under which the number of missiles should increase or decrease in time is also determined by this allocation.
Date: April 1, 1997
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

CAISI Operational Assessment (OA) data collection results. Final report

Description: One of the lessons learned from Operation Desert Shield/Storm was the inability of deployed Combat Service Support (CSS) computers to exchange data effectively in a battlefield environment. The work-around solution to this previously identified problem has been to physically carry floppy disks between computers. A General Officer Steering Committee, directed by the Vice Chief of Staff of the Army, determined that immediate corrective action was necessary to ensure viability of the CSS Battlefield Mission Area. The study recommended that a three-phased system development plan address short-, mid- and long-term CSS automation communication interface requirements. In response to this study, Program Executive Office (PEO) Standard Army Management Information System (STAMIS) authorized the development of the CSS Automated Information System Interface (CAISI). Phase I (Near-Term) equipped the {open_quotes}first to fight{close_quotes} Contingency Corps units. Phase II (Mid-Term) is being fielded to the remainder of Force Package One units in the active force. Phase III (Long-Term) will equip the remaining units. CAISI is now in the early stages of Phase II fielding. Prior to full Phase II fielding, CAISI must be approved for production by a Milestone III decision authority. Part of the data that will be used in the Milestone III decision is a demonstration of the CAISI`s operational suitability, as assessed by the US Army Operational Test and Evaluation Command (OPTEC). This assessment will be performed through an Operational Assessment (OA) using data provided from previous technical testing, such as the CAISI Customer User Test (CUT), and a field training exercise conducted by units of the XVIII Airborne Corps. The field training exercise data collection took place during two events.
Date: January 31, 1997
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Limits on linearity of missile allocation optimization

Description: Optimizations of missile allocation based on linearized exchange equations produce accurate allocations, but the limits of validity of the linearization are not known. These limits are explored in the context of the upload of weapons by one side to initially small, equal forces of vulnerable and survivable weapons. The analysis compares analytic and numerical optimizations and stability induces based on aggregated interactions of the two missile forces, the first and second strikes they could deliver, and they resulting costs. This note discusses the costs and stability indices induced by unilateral uploading of weapons to an initially symmetrical low force configuration. These limits are quantified for forces with a few hundred missiles by comparing analytic and numerical optimizations of first strike costs. For forces of 100 vulnerable and 100 survivable missiles on each side, the analytic optimization agrees closely with the numerical solution. For 200 vulnerable and 200 survivable missiles on each side, the analytic optimization agrees with the induces to within about 10%, but disagrees with the allocation of the side with more weapons by about 50%. The disagreement comes from the interaction of the possession of more weapons with the shift of allocation from missiles to value that they induce.
Date: December 1, 1997
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Control of entity interactions in a hierarchical variable resolution simulation

Description: There has long been interest in variable resolution modeling to support military analysis for a broad range of interest areas. Despite the ever-present desire for models of greater fidelity at the expense of analysis and computation resources, models of moderate to low fidelity are still required at many levels of decision-making. Problems can arise due to the issue of consistency among the family of models used for analysis. To address this and other problems, models of variable resolution have been suggested. However, such variable resolution architectures inherently carry their own set of issues which must be resolved in order to be useful. First, what are the structural requirements for a variable resolution model; and second, how are interactions between entities governed, especially when the entities have different resolutions? This paper addresses these issues and discusses key mechanisms needed to develop a variable resolution combat simulation that meets several core requirements for such models: seamless aggregation/disaggregation, appropriate interactions between entities of differing resolution, and control of the aggregation/disaggregation process.
Date: October 1, 1997
Creator: Powell, D.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The application of cooperative monitoring techniques to a conceptual limited deployment zone in the Korean peninsula

Description: The Korean peninsula is the site of a tense military confrontation. Relations between North and South Korea improved during the early 1990`s but the process is now frozen. Confidence building measures, particularly military ones, that address the security needs of both countries would decrease the danger of conflict and help create an environment for direct negotiations. The Korean Institute for Defense Analysis (KIDA) analyzed current security conditions and options. Their scenario includes a conceptual agreement to establish Limited Force Deployment Zones (LDZ) along the current demilitarized zone (DMZ) to increase mutual security. The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories, in collaboration with KIDA, developed a strategy, with examples, for cooperatively monitoring the agreement. A cooperative monitoring regime requires consideration of the agreement`s terms, the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors of the Korean environment, and the capability of technology to monitor the terms. This paper assesses the applicability of cooperative monitoring to Korea, describes the monitoring strategy for the Korean enhanced DMZ scenario, and describes the applicable technologies and procedures.
Date: October 1, 1996
Creator: Vannoni, M. & Duggan, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department