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Freedom to mix vulnerable offensive and defensive forces

Description: The freedom to mix offense and defense to expand without diminishing either side`s second strike capability is shown to be counterproductive at large numbers of missiles; effective at intermediate numbers; and progressively less effective at modest numbers. Solutions are less stable for large second strikes.
Date: September 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Stability versus first strike costs during deep reductions

Description: Reducing missile forces ultimately increases stability. However, for vulnerable forces, that increase is accompanied by an increase in first strike costs, which would disincentivize force reductions. For survivable forces there is a useful region in which weapon reductions could increase stability while reducing first strike costs.
Date: September 10, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Analysis of sequential exchanges between vulnerable forces

Description: A multi-stage and -step analysis of sequences of crises or exchanges shows that aggressiveness on one side can induce rapid counter-value strikes by the other as well and knowledge that opponents will later become less aggressive does not mitigate the tendency to strike early in crises.
Date: September 4, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Stability of regional configurations

Description: At moderate force levels the first strike stability index is proportional to the first strike cost, so as the attacker minimizes attack costs, he automatically minimizes stability. Weapons grow rapidly and saturate to levels comparable to the number of value targets held at risk. This growth could appear destabilizing to dominant regional powers, whose response could in turn appear threatening to the major nuclear powers, which could slow or halt efforts towards deep reductions. The fundamental way to alter these pressures appears to be through reducing the likelihood of regional crises by removing these fundamental antagonisms.
Date: August 13, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Considerations in missile reductions and de-alerting

Description: Earlier analyses assumed that all survivable forces could withstand first strikes and retaliate. Only those on alert, at sea, or capable of launching under attack meet that assumption. The sensitivity of those results to non-alert forces is discussed. Reduced alert rates decrease stability indices, primarily by reducing second strikes. Survivable, mobile Russian ICBMs could increase both sides stability. Dealerting hastens expected reductions and raises the possibility of abuse. And the low-force goal of arms reductions has some poorly understood and awkward attributes.
Date: April 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Simulating the forecasting of meteorological and oceanic conditions as a part of the planning cycle in simulated command and control

Description: Weather can be a decisive factor in military operations. Numerous examples can be found in history when weather conditions played a critical role in determining the outcome of a battle. The impact of weather must, therefore, be considered in the planning of missions as well as in its execution. For example, in planning air missions, the ewather conditions during all phases of the mission (launch, over target, and recovery) need to be considered including weather factors during the real world planning process is done as a normal part of the situations awareness process. Including weather factors in simulated planning processes, should, and can be done as a normal part. In this Paper, the authors discuss how the forecasting of meteorological and oceanic can be incorporated into the planning process of analytical simulations.
Date: July 1, 1998
Creator: Hummel, J.R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

The cooperative monitoring of military forces: An exercise in strategy

Description: This exercise examines a hypothetical security problem associated with conventional military forces and border security: a surprise attack. The goal of the exercise is to provide an opportunity to think about how cooperative monitoring can be part of regional security. Two hypothetical countries, VOLCANOES and MOUNTAINS, have been created for this exercise based on the US states of Arizona and New Mexico. They were selected for their size and variety of terrain. Hypothetical background information and characteristics of the two countries are provided. An outline of activities is given, including prioritization of security concerns and monitoring of objectives for security concerns. 6 tabs.
Date: April 1, 1998
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Sensitivity of stability indices to dealerting

Description: It is reported that more than 100 former or current heads of state and civilian leaders from around the world, including ex-presidents Jimmy Carter and Mikhail Gorbachev, have signed a statement that calls for removing nuclear weapons from alert status and other measures aimed at the eventual elimination of atomic arsenals--reflecting mounting support for the cause of nuclear bolition. This note uses stability analysis derived from current US and Russian analyses to study the impact of such dealerting on stability, indicating that it could be negative. Dealerting forces removes them from first and second strikes for as long as they are dealerted. If they are dealerted for periods long compared to those involved in the evaluation of first strike stability, dealerting has the same effect as permanent arms reductions, it subtracts them from first and second strikes. Thus, it is conceptually a way of implementing such reductions on an accelerated scale. Dealerting strategic forces has been posited as a stabilizing step towards their abolition. Previous reports have shown that planned START reductions will reduce stability indices by about a factor of two. Dealerting would hasten those reductions. They would also raise the possibility that one side could realert faster than the other. If so, the remobilized forces could be used to damage limit, which would reduce his first strike cost and stability index. The impact of complete demobilization of SSBNs would be an order of magnitude reduction in the overall stability index, to a level set by alert ICBMs. Generally, it would be preferable to maintain any existing strategic forces at the highest level of alert to minimize this effect and to concentrate instead on decreasing their total number.
Date: March 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Swarms of UAVs and fighter aircraft

Description: This paper describes a method of modeling swarms of UAVs and/or fighter aircraft using particle simulation concepts. Recent investigations into the use of genetic algorithms to design neural networks for the control of autonomous vehicles (i.e., robots) led to the examination of methods of simulating large collections of robots. This paper describes the successful implementation of a model of swarm dynamics using particle simulation concepts. Several examples of the complex behaviors achieved in a target/interceptor scenario are presented.
Date: November 1, 1998
Creator: Trahan, M.W.; Wagner, J.S.; Stantz, K.M.; Gray, P.C. & Robinett, R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Sensitivity to alert rates at moderate force levels

Description: This analysis extends previous studies of sensitivity to survivability and alert rates to low force levels. Stability and first strike considerations favor reduction of both survivable and vulnerable forces for a range of conditions. Reductions in the number of weapons per vulnerable missile always increases first strike costs, and would have to be offset by non-stability considerations.
Date: July 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Stability of alert survivable forces during reductions

Description: The stability of current and projected strategic forces are discussed within a framework that contains elements of current US and Russian analyses. For current force levels and high alert, stability levels are high, as are the levels of potential strikes, due to the large forces deployed. As force levels drop towards those of current value target sets, the analysis becomes linear, concern shifts from stability to reconstitution, and survivable forces drop out. Adverse marginal costs generally provide disincentives for the reduction of vulnerable weapons, but the exchange of vulnerable for survivable weapons could reduce cost while increasing stability even for aggressive participants. Exchanges between effective vulnerable and survivable missile forces are studied with an aggregated, probabilistic model, which optimizes each sides` first and determines each sides` second strikes and costs by minimizing first strike costs.
Date: January 1, 1998
Creator: Canavan, G. H.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Development of a comprehensive logistics and warfighting simulation system.

Description: An efficient logistics system is critical to the success of military operations. Recently, the Department of Defense (DoD) has begun to move from a ''just in case'' logistics system that relies on large stores of inventoried materials toward a ''just in time'' system based on obtaining and delivering supplies when and where they are needed. For this new logistics concept to operate smoothly and responsively and be highly robust, one must understand the interrelationships between warfighting and logistics, such as the impact of losses of logistics links/nodes and the changing pace of warfighting operations. Two DoD programs, the Distributed Intelligent Agents for Logistics (DIAL) and the Warfighting Logistics Technology and Assessment Environment (WLTAE), are focusing on different aspects of this problem. These programs are being integrated to develop a Comprehensive Logistics and Warfighting System (CLAWS) that can be used to address a variety of different logistics applications in the military arena. In this paper, we describe how CLAWS will be developed, including the development of a generalized Federation Object Model that could be used in a variety of logistics and military operations applications.
Date: August 12, 1998
Creator: Hummel, J. R.
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department