Description: A reliability algorithm is used to develop probabilistic (stochastic) models or contaminant transport in porous media. The models are based on advective-dispersive transport equations, and utilize the reliability algorithm with existing one- and two-dimensional analytical and numerical solutions. Uncertain variables in the models include: groundwater flow velocity (or permeability in the numerical model), dispersivity, diffusion coefficient, bulk density, porosity, and solute distribution coefficient. Each uncertain variable is assigned a mean, covariance, and marginal distribution. The models yield an estimate of the probability that the contaminant concentration will equal or exceed a target concentration at a selected location and time. The models also yield probabilistic sensitivity measures which identify those uncertain variables with most influence on the probabilistic outcome. The objective of this study is to examine the basic behavior and develop general conclusions regarding transport under certain conditions as modeled using a reliability approach.
Date: February 1, 1992
Creator: Cawlfield, J.D.
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