Description: This analysis is concerned with the impact of energy-policy measures on the level, growth, and structure of the US economy. In particular, the nature and magnitude of the causal relationship between variations in the prices of various energy forms and economic performance, as measured by real gross national product (GNP), is studied. The combined Brookhaven National Laboratory/Dale W. Jorgenson Associates (BNL/DHA) energy-economy model system is used to determine the economic effects of three energy-price futures combined with an invariant set of energy policies. The price alternatives are intended to characterize the uncertainty that exists in the policy-planning environment. In addition, the results are compared to those obtained from another DOE-sponsored analysis which used the Data Resources, Incorporated (DRI) quarterly macroeconomic model to assess the effects of these same three cases. Significant numerical differences in the results from these modeling systems are observed and are attributed to structural differences between the two methodologies. The methodological issues emerging from this comparison have important policy implications which are independent of the specific numerical conclusions. Since it is uncertain which, if either, of the models is correct, the use of one for policy analysis entails the risk that policy will be predicated on inaccurate information. This risk is analyzed within an explicit framework and clear decision rules for information selection and the choice between the modeling systems are formulated.
Date: December 1, 1978
Creator: Goettle, R.J. IV; Hudson, E.A. & Lukachinski, J.
Item Type: Refine your search to only Report
Partner: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department