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Annual Energy Outlook 2011 with Projections to 2035

Description: The projections in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2011 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2011 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 57 sensitivity cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Key results highlighted in AEO2011 include strong growth in shale gas production, growing use of natural gas and renewables in electric power generation, declining reliance on imported liquid fuels, and projected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions even in the absence of new policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. AEO2011 also includes in-depth discussions on topics of special interest that may affect the energy outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and regulations; discussion of world oil supply and price trends shaped by changes in demand from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or in supply available from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; an examination of the potential impacts of proposed revisions to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles and proposed new standards for heavy-duty vehicles; the impact of a series of updates to appliance standard alone or in combination with revised building codes; the potential impact on natural gas and crude oil production of an expanded offshore resource base; prospects for ...
Date: April 1, 2011

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 with Projections to 2040

Description: The Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013), prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), presents long-term projections of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040, based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System. The report begins with an “Executive summary” that highlights key aspects of the projections. It is followed by a “Legislation and regulations” section that discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues, including a summary of recently enacted legislation and regulations, such as: Updated handling of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants for industrial boilers and process heaters; New light-duty vehicle (LDV) greenhouse gas (GHG) and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for model years 2017 to 2025; Reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after the court’s announcement of intent to vacate the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR); and Modeling of California’s Assembly Bill 32, the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), which allows for representation of a cap-and-trade program developed as part of California’s GHG reduction goals for 2020. The “Issues in focus” section contains discussions of selected energy topics, including a discussion of the results in two cases that adopt different assumptions about the future course of existing policies, with one case assuming the elimination of sunset provisions in existing policies and the other case assuming the elimination of the sunset provisions and the extension of a selected group of existing public policies—CAFE standards, appliance standards, and production tax credits. Other discussions include: oil price and production trends in AEO2013; U.S. reliance on imported liquids under a range of cases; competition between coal and natural gas in electric power generation; high and low nuclear scenarios through 2040; and the impact of growth in natural gas liquids production. The “Market trends” section summarizes the projections for energy markets. ...
Date: April 2013