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Modeling State Repression in Argentina and Chile: A Time Series Analysis

Description: This study is an attempt to contribute to the emerging theoretical literature on state repression. A time-series model was developed to test the hypothesis that state violence in Argentina and Chile is largely a function of four internal political factors and their interactions: 1) the inertial influence of past restrictive policies on the formulation of current policies, 2) the annual incidence of political protest demonstrations, 3) the perceived effectiveness of repressive measures on unrest, 4) and the institutionalization of military rule.
Date: December 1993
Creator: King, John Christopher

A Role Modification Model: the Foreign Policy of the Palestine Liberation Organization, 1964-1981

Description: This study is a Comparative Foreign Policy (CFP) analysis of the Palestine Liberation Organization's (PLO) foreign policy behavior from 1964 through 1981. This study develops and tests a role modification model that accounts for evolutionary changes in foreign policy behavior. One of the major premises of this research is that what often appears as dramatic restructuring in foreign policy is actually the culmination of a series of modifications that transpired over an extended period of time. The model relies on a total of six independent variables as determinants of PLO foreign policy output representing multiple levels of analysis. There are a total of 12 dependent variables expressed as either foreign policy tactical roles or strategic goals. Relying on content analysis of relevant PLO documents, the role modification model demonstrates that the foreign policy output of the PLO experienced a gradual, over time change in both the means and ends of its foreign policy. The model also identifies the conditions under which any one of the independent variables is able to exclusively determine foreign policy output and which roles one can reasonably expect the PLO to exercise under a given circumstance.
Date: December 1993
Creator: DiGeorgio-Lutz, JoAnn A. (JoAnn Angela)

Canadian Supreme Court Decision-making, 1875-1990 : Institutional, Group, and Individual Level Perspectives

Description: Since its creation in 1875, the Canadian Supreme Court has undergone several institutional transitions. These transitions have changed the role of the Court toward a more explicit and influential policy making role in the country. Despite this increasingly significant role, very limited attention has been given to the Court. With this perspective in mind, this study presents several analyses on the decision making process of the Canadian Supreme Court. At the institutional level, the study found that within the stable workload, the cases composition has shifted away from private law to public law cases. This shift is more significant when one concentrates on appeals involving constitutional and rights cases. The study found that this changing pattern of the Court's decision making was a result of the institutional changes shaping the Supreme Court. Statistically, the abolition of rights to appeal in civil cases in 1975 was found to be the most important source of the workload change.
Date: May 1994
Creator: Sittiwong, Panu

Population Policy Implementation and Evaluation in Less Industrialized Countries

Description: This study emphasizes the impact of family planning program components on contraceptive prevalence in less industrialized countries. Building on Lapham and Mauldin's "Program Effort and Fertility Decline" framework and policy evaluation's theory, the author developed two models to examine the impact of family planning programs on contraceptive prevalence and fertility under the constraints of socioeconomic development and demand for family planning. The study employed path analysis and multiple regression on data from the 1982 program effort study in 94 less developed countries (LDCs) by Lapham and Mauldin and 98 LDCs of the 1989 program effort study by Mauldin and Ross. The results of data analyses for all data sets are consistent for the most part. Major findings are as follows: (1) A combination of program effort and socioeconomic development best explains the variation of contraceptive prevalence. (2) Among socioeconomic variables, female literacy exerts the strongest direct and indirect influences to increase contraceptive prevalence and indirect influence to decrease total fertility rate. (3) Christianity performs a significant role in reducing contraceptive prevalence. (4) Among program effort components, availability and accessibility for fertility-control supplies and services have the most influence on contraceptive prevalence. (5) When controlling for demand for family planning, female literacy and Christianity have expected and significant relationships with contraceptive prevalence. Availability and accessibility to fertility-control supplies and services exerts a positive and statistically significant impact on contraceptive prevalence. Demand for family planning has a positive and statistically significant effect on program variables, availability, and contraceptive prevalence. (6) There is a strong inverse relationship between contraceptive use and fertility. Demand for family planning, program effort, and socioeconomic development influence fertility through contraceptive prevalence. The findings of this study suggest that governments in LDCs should give priorities to increasing female education and availability of contraception to effectively reduce fertility.
Date: August 1993
Creator: Sirirangsi, Rangsima

Examining the Effect of Security Environment on U.S. Unilateral Military Intervention in Civil Conflicts

Description: This study focuses on how perceived security environment affect U.S. unilateral, military intervention in civil conflicts, using the concept of Bayesian learning to illustrate how threat perceptions are formed, how they change, and how they affect the U.S. decision to intervene militarily in civil conflicts. I assess the validity of two primary hypotheses: (1) the U.S. is more likely to intervene in civil conflicts with connections to a threatening actor or ideology; and (2) the U.S. is more likely to intervene in civil conflicts for humanitarian motives in a less threatening security context. To test these hypotheses, I compare U.S. military intervention in three temporal contexts reflecting more threatening security contexts (Cold War and post-9/11) and less threatening security contexts (1992-2001). Results of logit regression analysis reveal that a conflict’s connection to a threatening actor or ideology is the most statistically and substantively significant determinant of U.S. military intervention in civil conflicts, both in more and less threatening security contexts. They also indicate that humanitarian motives are not a statistically significant determinant of U.S. military intervention in civil conflicts, even in a more benign security environment. These findings imply that U.S. unilateral military intervention is reserved for more direct national security threats, even those that are less grave, and that the perception of the U.S. as “global cop” may be misleading, at least in terms of unilateral military intervention.
Date: August 2011
Creator: Aubone, Amber

Ecological Sustainability and Peace: The Effect of Ecological Sustainability on Interstate and Intrastate Environmental Conflict

Description: This study examines the relationship between ecological sustainability and violent conflict at both the interstate and intrastate level. In particular, this study explores the effect of ecological sustainability of a society on the initiation and the occurrence of violent conflict. By developing a theory, which is named "Eco-peace," this study hypothesizes that the more ecologically sustainable the socioeconomic system of societies, the less likely the society is to initiate interstate conflict. Regarding intrastate conflict, it is hypothesized that the more ecologically sustainable the mode of development pursued by the Third World society is, the more likely that society is to experience intrastate conflicts. To test the hypotheses, this study conducts cross-national time-series analyses for 97-127 countries. Negative binomial and Poisson models are used for interstate conflict during 1960-2001, and logit and rare event logit models are used for intrastate conflict during 1960-1999. Militarized interstate dispute dataset and Uppsala Armed Conflict Program dataset are employed for interstate and intrastate conflict. For ecological sustainability, Ecological sustainability factor index and Environmental sustainability index are used. Through the analyses, this study found the supports for the theoretical argument that the ecologically unsustainable modes of development cause the initiation of interstate conflict and the incidence of intra-state conflict in the Third World.
Date: August 2010
Creator: Yoon, Jong-Han

Military Spending, External Dependence, and Economic Growth in Seven Asian Nations: a Cross-National Time-Series Analysis

Description: The theme of this study is that seven major East Asian less developed countries (LDCs) have experienced "dependent development," and that some internal and external intervening factors mattered in that process. Utilizing a framework of "dependent development," the data analysis deals with the political economy of development in these countries. This analysis supports the fundamental arguments of the dependent development perspective, which emphasize positive effects of foreign capital dependence in domestic capital formation and industrialization in East Asian LDCs. This perspective assumes the active role of the state, and it is found here to be crucial in capital accumulation and in economic growth. This cross-national time-series analysis also shows that the effects of external dependence and military spending on capital accumulation and economic growth can be considered as a regional phenomenon. The dependent development perspective offers a useful way to understand economic dynamism of East Asian LDCs for the past two decades.
Date: May 1992
Creator: Ko, Sung-youn

The Political Leadership Crisis and Violation of Human Rights in the Arab World: A Study of the Rulership of the Arab Countries, 1970-1990

Description: This dissertation analyzes the political leadership crisis and the violations of human rights in the Arab countries during the period 1970 to 1990. The main purposes of this study could be briefly summarized as follows: (1) to explore scientifically whether there is a political leadership crisis in the Arab World; (2) to explore the concept of political leadership, i.e., what constitutes political leadership, what are its necessary requirements, and what differentiates it from dictatorship; and (3) to examine the effects of political leadership in the Arab countries upon the violation of human rights.
Date: December 1993
Creator: Benruwin, Mohammed (Mohammed A.)

Political Economy of Industrial Keiretsu Groups in Japan and their Impact on Foreign Trade with the United States

Description: The postwar transformation of the international environment has caused economic issues to become a main source of contention among industrial states. The trade imbalance between Japan and its trading partners became a major source of conflict. Reciprocity of access and opening the market of Japan became the main point of debate and the major issue affecting relations between Japan and the United States. While the distinction between the domain of domestic and international politics increasingly is blurred, different domestic political economies create bilateral political and economic conflict. The structure and politics of intercorporate groups or vertical keiretsu are a major feature of Japan's industrial structure and political economy. This case study examines how vertical keiretsu in the automobile and home electric appliance industries affect the Japanese political economy and international trade. A political economy approach focuses on the political context of economic phenomena by analyzing both political and economic variables. Case studies of keiretsu were used in order to gain an understanding of Japan's political economy. A number of propositions or assumptions about the political economy and the dynamics of keiretsu were examined in these studies. It was found that vertical keiretsu influences the industrial sector, trade, and foreign policies in Japan. Japan's industrial policies cannot fully be understood without taking keiretsu into consideration. Scholars have not yet fully considered vertical keiretsu as major actors in the Japanese political process. Their political influence on industrial policies has largely been overlooked. Vertical keiretsu in the automobile and home electric appliance industries were found in the case studies to have been shaping industrial policies since the early post war years. Findings about the nature of Japan's political economy help to explain the conflictive bilateral relationships between Japan and the United States. The findings also show that understanding political economies of nations is ...
Date: August 1993
Creator: Nukumi, Tetsuro

The Republic of China's Foreign Policy 1949-1988: Factors Affecting Change in Foreign Policy Behavior

Description: The Republic of China (ROC) has faced severe foreign policy challenges since its relocation from mainland China to Taiwan, and it has had to modify its position several times as its environment has changed. Its foreign policy since 1949 has gone through three distinct phases of development. A series of diplomatic adversities befell the ROC following its defeat in the United Nations in 1971, which presented the nation with an unprecedented challenge to its survival. These calamitous events for the ROC presented it with a frightening identity crisis: it was isolated in the international community and had become a "pariah" state. This case study examines and analyzes the various changes in the ROC's foreign policy behavior and attempts to determine what has influenced or induced changes in its foreign policy.
Date: May 1993
Creator: Wang, Chian, 1955-

Sikh Terrorism in India 1984-1990: A Time Series Analysis

Description: In recent times, religion has become a powerful force in giving legitimacy to terrorist actions. The present work considers this highly salient fact, as well as stresses the necessity to consider the historical and social contexts and group power resources in any meaningful analysis of violent protest movements. Quantitative rigor is combined with a sensitivity to context. Terrorism is operationalized by taking a time-based count of terrorist killings of innocent people. Regime acts of omission and commission are coded as time series interventions. The analysis also includes a continuous variable measuring the incidence of economic distress in Punjab. A case is also made for the superiority of Box- Jenkins time series techniques for the quantitative analysis of problems of this nature.
Date: August 1991
Creator: Singh, Karandeep

To Negotiate or Not to Negotiate: an Evaluation of Governments' Response to Hostage Events, 1967-1987 and the Determinants of Hostage Event Frequency

Description: Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis is applied to a cross-national data set to test two hypotheses concerning governments' hard-line response against terrorism: do hard-line responses cause more damage vis a vis event outcome and is the hard-line approach a deterrent? Six national factors are included in this analysis: economic development, economic growth rate, democratic development, leftist regime type, military regime type and British colonial legacy. Only the level of economic development, economic growth rate and leftist regime type demonstrated statistically significant relationships with the dependent variable "event frequency." Government response strength demonstrated a strong statistically significant relationship with event outcome, however, its relationship with event frequency was statistically insignificant.
Date: December 1997
Creator: Woodard, Paul B. (Paul Bonham)

The Determinants of Federal Spending for the Administration of Justice

Description: This study develops and empirically tests a model of the determinants of federal spending for crime-fighting policies. An inter-disciplinary approach to building the model is utilized that merges ideas from budgeting, policy analysis and criminology. Four factors hypothesized to impact federal spending for the administration of justice are operationalized as eight variables and tested using ordinary least squares regression analysis on time series data. The factors hypothesized to impact federal spending in this area are economic constraints imposed on government spending, the ideological makeup of Congress and the president, the actual crime rate, and the public's attitude toward crime. Five of the eight variables demonstrated statistical significance at the.10 level or better.
Date: December 1998
Creator: Gabriano, Gina

Dangerous Changes? The Effect of Political Regime Changes on Life Integrity Violations, 1977-1993

Description: This study develops a model of different types of political regime changes and their effect on life integrity violations. The data covers 147 countries from 1977-1993. Basic bivariate analyses and multivariate pooled cross-sectional time series analyses employing Ordinary Least Squares regression with panel-corrected standard errors are used. The results show that political regime change in general has no effect on state-sponsored violence. Looking at different types of regime changes, the regression analysis indicates that change from democracy to anocracy is positively correlated with levels of repression at the level of p < .001. A change toward democracy from autocracy is negatively related to human rights violations at the level of p < .01, once relevant control variables are considered.
Date: August 1998
Creator: Zanger, Sabine C. (Sabine Carmen)

"Let the End be Legitimate": An Analysis of Federal District Court Decision Making in Voting Rights Cases, 1965-1993.

Description: Integrated process models that combine both legal and extralegal variables provide a more accurate specification of the judicial decision making process and capture the complexity of the factors that shape judicial behavior. Judicial decision making theories borrow heavily from U.S. Supreme Court research, however, such theories may not automatically be applicable to the lower federal bench. The author uses vote dilution cases originating in the federal district courts from the years 1965 to 1993 to examine what motivates the behavior of district and circuit court judges. The author uses an integrated process model to assess what factors are important to the adjudication process and if there are significant differences between federal district and appellate court judges in decision making.
Date: May 1998
Creator: Morbitt, Jennifer Marie

The Pull to the Right in Western Europe: an Analysis of Electoral Support for the Extreme-Right

Description: This study develops a model explaining support for contemporary extreme-right parties. The history and political setting of relevant countries are examined. The research explores necessary state-level conditions, which are postindustrialism, convergence to the center by major parties, and proportional representation. Individual support is probed using survey data with bivariate and probit analyses. Being male and younger proved to be significant variables, while socio-economic status did not. Concerning issues, personal disaffection for immigrants, favoring nationalistic hiring practices, and free-market tendencies were significant variables. Opposition to feminism and pride to be from one's nation were insignificant explanations for extreme-right support. Implications of the analysis are discussed as are issues concerning future research.
Date: December 1998
Creator: Fletcher, Jody D. (Jody Daniel)

Socioeconomic Development and Military Policy Consequences of Third World Military and Civilian Regimes, 1965-1985

Description: This study attempts to address the performance of military and civilian regimes in promoting socioeconomic development and providing military policy resources in the Third World. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, three models of socioeconomic and military policy performance are estimated for 66 countries in the Third World for the period 1965-1985. These models include the progressive, corporate self-interest, and conditional. The results indicate that socioeconomic and military resource policies are not significantly affected by military control. Specifically, neither progressive nor corporate self-interest models are supported by Third World data. In addition, the conditional model is not confirmed by the data. Thus, a simple distinction between military and civilian regimes is not useful in understanding the consequences of military rule.
Date: May 1992
Creator: Madani, Hamed

Linkages between the Texas Supreme Court and Public Opinion

Description: This investigation sought to identify linkages between the Texas Supreme Court and public opinion through 1) a matching of written decisions with scientifically conducted public opinion polls; 2) direct mention of public opinion and its synonyms in Texas justices' decisions; 3) comparison of these mentions over time; and 4) comparison of 10 personal attributes of justices with matched decisions. The study moved the unit of analysis from the U.S. Supreme Court to the state court level by using classification schemes and attribute models previously applied to the U.S. Supreme Court. It determined that linkages exist between the Texas Supreme Court's written decisions and public opinion from 1978 to July 1994.
Date: May 1995
Creator: Ragland, Ruth Ann Vaughan

Party-Military Relations in the PRC After Mao, 1976-1990

Description: The importance of party-military relations in the People's Republic of China was succinctly stated by Mao in his dictum that "political power comes from the gun" and "the Party should command the gun." Party-military relations in the PRC have never fully conformed to Mao's warning. This study seeks to analyze the nature and types of party-military relations in the PRC during the post-Mao period and the factors affecting change in these relations.
Date: December 1991
Creator: Hung, Lu-hsun Theodore

The Rise and Fall of Military Regimes in the Sudan, 1956-1989

Description: This study attempts to explore the factors that contributed to the rise and fall of military regimes in the Sudan from independence in 1956 to 1989. Further, the study tries to identify the factors that led to the collapse of either or both civilian and military regimes. Most of the studies on military politics have focused their research on either military coups or, more recently, on military withdrawal from politics. This work tries to synthesize the study of military coups and military withdrawal from politics into a single theoretical framework.
Date: December 1992
Creator: Ali Ahmed, Hassan Elhag

A Multivariate Analysis of Regional Political Integration the Case of the Caribbean Free Trade Area and the Caribbean Community and Common Market, 1965-1983

Description: The purpose of this study is three-fold. The first is to provide the reader with a review of the literature concerning the topic of regional political integration. The second purpose is to provide an operational definition of regional political integration which can be useful in the testing of hypotheses. Regional political integration is defined in terms of the regional decision-making process. Various levels of regional political integration are defined, operationalized, and identified. The levels from lowest to highest are as follows: regional promotion, regional information exchange, regional policy coordination, regional monitor, and regional authoritative decision-making. The third purpose of the study is to analyze the factors which are hypothesized to be correlated with and responsible for the changing levels of regional political integration.
Date: May 1987
Creator: Staten, Clifford Lee

Planning, Budgeting, and Development in Jordan: An Examination of How These Policy Processes Function in a Poor and Uncertain Environment

Description: The purpose of this dissertation is to study the planning and budgeting processes in Jordan to determine whether the findings of Caiden and Wildavsky about those processes in other poor countries generally are applicable to Jordan. An attempt is made to answer the research questions by comparing data from national plans, budgets, and expenditures during a fifteen-year period (1970-1984). In Jordan, as in other developing nations, the role of planning and budgeting is highly significant to the success of the country's hopes for development. This research tries to evaluate the role of planning and budgeting as policy instruments in the process of development in Jordan. The second focus of the dissertation concerns the possibilities and problems of assessing the impact of governmental policies on development. Specifically, an assessment is made to determine the impact of governmental expenditures on development as evidenced in Jordan s gross national product during the last fifteen years. The following questions are addressed in order to examine the impact of government action on economic development. First, what are the impact and significance of government expenditures, as a combined measure, on the gross national product in Jordan? Second, which governmental expenditure areas provide the greatest contribution to an increase in the Jordanian GNP? Data for Jordan are compared with Caiden and Wildavsky's assumptions about planning and budgeting in poor countries, and conclusions are drawn about how planning and budgeting have influenced economic and social development in Jordan.
Date: May 1987
Creator: Al-Lawzi, Sulieman Ahmed