A Predictive Model of Hispanic Participation in Texas Higher Education: Inferences Drawn from Institutional Data in Prevalent Hispanic States
Description: In Texas, Hispanic populations (people of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South American or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race) have increased from 6.7 million in 2000 to 7.4 million in 2005, or by approximately 10.5%. This growth trend is expected to continue with estimates that Hispanics will represent approximately 37% of the state's population by 2015. The problem this research addressed is that participation in higher education by Texas Hispanics is not keeping pace with the growth in the Texas Hispanic population. If allowed to continue, the state could be in danger of realizing devastating economic and societal consequences. The present study utilized regression analysis to determine how well four institutional characteristics explained the variance in Hispanic enrollment and graduation percentages of students attending public 4-year institutions in states with prevalent Hispanic populations. Findings indicate that while local Hispanic population is a strong, positive predictor of Hispanic enrollments, it has a negative impact on Hispanic graduation rates. The independent variables of average cost of attendance and average financial aid package are the strongest predictors of Hispanic graduation percentages. Implications for the state of Texas include stress on public 4-year institutions in coping with Hispanic population increases, possible enrollment overflows at the community college level, and need for additional allocations to state and institutional financial aid programs.
Date: August 2009
Creator: Haynes, Robert Michael