UNT Theses and Dissertations - 2 Matching Results

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The Effect of Personality Characteristics on Information Selection, Utilization and Decision-Making

Description: The problem with which this investigation is concerned is that of determining the role of personality in information acquisition and utilization during the decision-making process, by replicating the Schkade-Scarborough box design and the Kernan-Mojena chip design, using an expanded battery of psychological tests. This investigation seeks to accomplish the following objectives: (1) review and summarize the present literature which relates personality and binary decision behavior; (2) review and summarize the present literature which relates personality with information transmission and utilization; (3) administer the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (NMPI), the Gordon Personal Inventory (GPI), the Gordon Personal Profile (GPP), EAS j, and LA1S0 to a group of subjects who will also participate in both the box and the chip experimental designs; (4) replicate both the box and the chip experimental designs with a different set of subjects to test for consistency of findings; (5) perform canonical analysis on the box design, endeavoring to extend and refine the analysis of the data; and (6) compare the findings from the box and chip experimental designs, and identify areas for further research. The purpose of this study is twofold. The first is to replicate and test the research findings of Schkade-Scarborough and Kernan-Mojena, which suggested that there is a statistically significant relationship between decision performance, as defined by a set of decision performance metrics, and personality, as defined by a set of psychological test scales. The second purpose is to test the hypothesis that the same psychological scales which are significantly related to decision performance, as defined by the box performance metrics, are also related to decision performance, as defined by the chip performance metric.
Date: December 1972
Creator: Carothers, Samuel Gilbert, 1938-
Partner: UNT Libraries

An Inquiry into the Inevitability of Prediction Error in Investment Portfolio Models

Description: Many mathematical programming models of the selection of investment portfolios assume that the best portfolio at any given level of risk is the portfolio having the highest level of return. The expected level of return is defined as a linear combination of the expected returns of the individual investments contained within the portfolio,and risk is defined in terms of variance of return. This study uses Monte Carlo simulation to establish that if the estimates of the future returns on potential investments are unbiased, the steady-state return on the portfolio is overestimated by the procedure used in the standard models. Under reasonable assumptions concerning the parameters of the estimates of the various returns, this bias is quite sizeable, with the steady-state predicted return often overestimating the steady-state actual return by more than ten percentage points. In addition, it is shown that when the variances of the alternative potential investments are not all equal,a limitation on the variance of the portfolio will reduce the magnitude of the bias. In many reasonable cases, constraining the portfolio variance reduces the bias by a magnitude greater than the amount by which it reduces the predicted portfolio return, causing the steady-state actual return to rise. This implies that return cannot automatically be assumed to be a monotonic function of risk.
Date: December 1972
Creator: Valentine, Jerome Lynn
Partner: UNT Libraries