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Sales Forecasting Accuracy Over Time: An Empirical Investigation
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This study investigated forecasting accuracy over time. Several quantitative and qualitative forecasting models were tested and a number of combinational methods was investigated. Six time series methods, one causal model, and one subjective technique were compared in this study. Six combinational forecasts were generated and compared to individual forecasts. A combining technique was developed. Thirty data sets, obtained from a market leader in the cosmetics industry, were used to forecast sales. All series represent monthly sales from January 1985 to December 1989. Gross sales forecasts from January 1988 to June 1989 were generated by the company using econometric models. All data sets exhibited seasonality and trend.
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