Assessing processes in uncertain, complex physical phenomena and manufacturing

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Description

PREDICT (Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking) is a set of structured quantitative approaches for the evaluation of system performance based on multiple information sources. The methodology integrates diverse types and sources of information, and their associated uncertainties, to develop full distributions for performance metrics, such as reliability. The successful application of PREDICT has involved system performance assessment in automotive product development, aging nuclear weapons, and fatigued turbine jet engines. In each of these applications, complex physical, mechanical and materials processes affect performance, safety and reliability assessments. Processes also include the physical actions taken during manufacturing, ... continued below

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7 p.

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Booker, J. M. (Jane M.); Kerscher, W. J. III (William J.) & Smith, R. E. (Ronald E.) January 1, 2002.

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Description

PREDICT (Performance and Reliability Evaluation with Diverse Information Combination and Tracking) is a set of structured quantitative approaches for the evaluation of system performance based on multiple information sources. The methodology integrates diverse types and sources of information, and their associated uncertainties, to develop full distributions for performance metrics, such as reliability. The successful application of PREDICT has involved system performance assessment in automotive product development, aging nuclear weapons, and fatigued turbine jet engines. In each of these applications, complex physical, mechanical and materials processes affect performance, safety and reliability assessments. Processes also include the physical actions taken during manufacturing, quality control, inspections, assembly, etc. and the steps involved in product design, development and certification. In this paper, we will examine the various types of processes involved in the decision making leading to production in an automotive system reliability example. Analysis of these processes includes not only understanding their impact on performance and reliability, but also the uncertainties associated with them. The automotive example demonstrates some of the tools used in tackling the complex problem of understanding processes. While some tools and methods exist for understanding processes (man made and natural) and the uncertainties associated with them, many of the complex issues discussed are open for continued research efforts.

Physical Description

7 p.

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  • Submitted to: PSAM 6, June 6, 2002, San Juan

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  • Report No.: LA-UR-02-0519
  • Report No.: LA-UR-02-519
  • Grant Number: none
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 975991
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc933833

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • January 1, 2002

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Nov. 13, 2016, 7:26 p.m.

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  • Dec. 12, 2016, 2:55 p.m.

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Booker, J. M. (Jane M.); Kerscher, W. J. III (William J.) & Smith, R. E. (Ronald E.). Assessing processes in uncertain, complex physical phenomena and manufacturing, article, January 1, 2002; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc933833/: accessed September 24, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.