A new method for multinomial inference using Dempster-Shafer theory

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A new method for multinomial inference is proposed by representing the cell probabilities as unordered segments on the unit interval and following Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. The resulting DS posterior is then strengthened to improve symmetry and learning properties with the final posterior model being characterized by a Dirichlet distribution. In addition to computational simplicity, the new model has desirable invariance properties related to category permutations, refinements, and coarsenings. Furthemore, posterior inference on relative probabilities amongst certain cells depends only on data for the cells in question. Finally, the model is quite flexible with regard to parameterization and the range of ... continued below

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Lawrence, Earl Christopher; Vander Wiel, Scott; Liu, Chuanhai & Zhang, Jianchun January 1, 2009.

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A new method for multinomial inference is proposed by representing the cell probabilities as unordered segments on the unit interval and following Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory. The resulting DS posterior is then strengthened to improve symmetry and learning properties with the final posterior model being characterized by a Dirichlet distribution. In addition to computational simplicity, the new model has desirable invariance properties related to category permutations, refinements, and coarsenings. Furthemore, posterior inference on relative probabilities amongst certain cells depends only on data for the cells in question. Finally, the model is quite flexible with regard to parameterization and the range of testable assertions. Comparisons are made to existing methods and illustrated with two examples.

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  • Journal Name: Annals of Statistics

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  • Report No.: LA-UR-09-00735
  • Report No.: LA-UR-09-735
  • Grant Number: AC52-06NA25396
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 956387
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc932938

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  • January 1, 2009

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  • Nov. 13, 2016, 7:26 p.m.

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  • Dec. 12, 2016, 4:20 p.m.

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Lawrence, Earl Christopher; Vander Wiel, Scott; Liu, Chuanhai & Zhang, Jianchun. A new method for multinomial inference using Dempster-Shafer theory, article, January 1, 2009; [New Mexico]. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc932938/: accessed September 24, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.