Atmospheric Inverse Estimates of Methane Emissions from Central California

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Methane mixing ratios measured at a tall-tower are compared to model predictions to estimate surface emissions of CH{sub 4} in Central California for October-December 2007 using an inverse technique. Predicted CH{sub 4} mixing ratios are calculated based on spatially resolved a priori CH{sub 4} emissions and simulated atmospheric trajectories. The atmospheric trajectories, along with surface footprints, are computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) coupled to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. An uncertainty analysis is performed to provide quantitative uncertainties in estimated CH{sub 4} emissions. Three inverse model estimates of CH{sub 4} emissions are reported. First, linear ... continued below

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Zhao, Chuanfeng; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Bianco, Laura; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hirsch, Adam; MacDonald, Clinton et al. November 21, 2008.

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Methane mixing ratios measured at a tall-tower are compared to model predictions to estimate surface emissions of CH{sub 4} in Central California for October-December 2007 using an inverse technique. Predicted CH{sub 4} mixing ratios are calculated based on spatially resolved a priori CH{sub 4} emissions and simulated atmospheric trajectories. The atmospheric trajectories, along with surface footprints, are computed using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) coupled to the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model. An uncertainty analysis is performed to provide quantitative uncertainties in estimated CH{sub 4} emissions. Three inverse model estimates of CH{sub 4} emissions are reported. First, linear regressions of modeled and measured CH{sub 4} mixing ratios obtain slopes of 0.73 {+-} 0.11 and 1.09 {+-} 0.14 using California specific and Edgar 3.2 emission maps respectively, suggesting that actual CH{sub 4} emissions were about 37 {+-} 21% higher than California specific inventory estimates. Second, a Bayesian 'source' analysis suggests that livestock emissions are 63 {+-} 22% higher than the a priori estimates. Third, a Bayesian 'region' analysis is carried out for CH{sub 4} emissions from 13 sub-regions, which shows that inventory CH{sub 4} emissions from the Central Valley are underestimated and uncertainties in CH{sub 4} emissions are reduced for sub-regions near the tower site, yielding best estimates of flux from those regions consistent with 'source' analysis results. The uncertainty reductions for regions near the tower indicate that a regional network of measurements will be necessary to provide accurate estimates of surface CH{sub 4} emissions for multiple regions.

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  • Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research

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  • Report No.: LBNL-2166E
  • Grant Number: DE-AC02-05CH11231
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 964369
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc930882

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Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • November 21, 2008

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  • Nov. 13, 2016, 7:26 p.m.

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  • Jan. 4, 2017, 4:57 p.m.

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Zhao, Chuanfeng; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Bianco, Laura; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hirsch, Adam; MacDonald, Clinton et al. Atmospheric Inverse Estimates of Methane Emissions from Central California, article, November 21, 2008; Berkeley, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc930882/: accessed May 22, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.