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Figure 1 focuses on the history of "first-nearby" gas futures prices (a proxy for spot prices) and
provides only a current snapshot of the 156-month futures strip (i.e., the prices that can currently
be locked in for the next 156 months). Figure 2, in contrast, shows the daily history of the
average 5-year natural gas futures strip going back to January 2002, a few weeks after the
NYMEX first extended futures trading from 36 to 72 months (in February 2008, the NYMEX
extended the curve out an additional 72-84 months, for 12-13 years total). After falling sharply
in the second half of 2008, the average 5-year strip has traded in a range between $6 and
$7/MMBtu for most of 2009.
12 5-Year Average Natural Gas Price Expectations, as Reflected in NYMEX Futures Strip 12
(average 5-year strip, shown on a daily basis)
2 11 11 2
I I
>10 10
I I
o -
m m
Source: LBNL
Figure 2: Change in 5-Year Natural Gas Price Expectations Over Time
3. The AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast
In AEO 2010, the EIA has revised its reference-case gas price forecast downwards from AEO
passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009). Figure 3 compares the AEO
2010 projection of nominal natural gas prices at the Henry Hub to the same price projections
22
from AEO 2007-2009.2 Figure 4 depicts the same price series in real (2008) dollars.
2Each AEO projection in real dollars is converted to nominal dollars using the EIA's projection of the GDP deflator
(as contained in each AEO).4
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Synchrotron-based high-pressure research in materials science, article, Date Unknown; [Berkeley, California]. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc926442/m1/4/: accessed April 19, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.