A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach

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Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's ... continued below

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Yue,M.; Cheng, L.-Y. & Bari, R. May 11, 2008.

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Misuse of declared nuclear facilities is one of the important proliferation threats. The robustness of a facility against these threats is characterized by a number of proliferation resistance (PR) measures. This paper evaluates and compares PR measures for several misuse scenarios using a Markov model approach to implement the pathway analysis methodology being developed by the PR&PP (Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection) Expert Group. Different misue strategies can be adopted by a proliferator and each strategy is expected to have different impacts on the proliferator's success. Selected as the probabilistic measure to represent proliferation resistance, the probabilities of the proliferator's success of misusing a hypothetical ESFR (Example Sodium Fast Reactor) facility system are calculated using the Markov model based on the pathways constructed for individual misuse scenarios. Insights from a comparison of strategies that are likely to be adopted by the proliferator are discussed in this paper.

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  • ICONE 16, 16th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering; Orlando, Florida; 20080511 through 20080515

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  • Report No.: BNL--81554-2008-CP
  • Grant Number: DE-AC02-98CH10886
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 953662
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc926415

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

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  • May 11, 2008

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  • Nov. 13, 2016, 7:26 p.m.

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Yue,M.; Cheng, L.-Y. & Bari, R. A Comparison of Proliferation Resistance Measures of Misuse Scenarios Using a Markov Approach, article, May 11, 2008; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc926415/: accessed December 9, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.