Estimating the error in simulation prediction over the design space

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Description

This study addresses the assessrnent of accuracy of simulation predictions. A procedure is developed to validate a simple non-linear model defined to capture the hardening behavior of a foam material subjected to a short-duration transient impact. Validation means that the predictive accuracy of the model must be established, not just in the vicinity of a single testing condition, but for all settings or configurations of the system. The notion of validation domain is introduced to designate the design region where the model's predictive accuracy is appropriate for the application of interest. Techniques brought to bear to assess the model's predictive ... continued below

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12 p.

Creation Information

Shinn, R. (Rachel); Hemez, F. M. (François M.) & Doebling, S. W. (Scott W.) January 1, 2003.

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Description

This study addresses the assessrnent of accuracy of simulation predictions. A procedure is developed to validate a simple non-linear model defined to capture the hardening behavior of a foam material subjected to a short-duration transient impact. Validation means that the predictive accuracy of the model must be established, not just in the vicinity of a single testing condition, but for all settings or configurations of the system. The notion of validation domain is introduced to designate the design region where the model's predictive accuracy is appropriate for the application of interest. Techniques brought to bear to assess the model's predictive accuracy include test-analysis coi-relation, calibration, bootstrapping and sampling for uncertainty propagation and metamodeling. The model's predictive accuracy is established by training a metalnodel of prediction error. The prediction error is not assumed to be systcmatic. Instead, it depends on which configuration of the system is analyzed. Finally, the prediction error's confidence bounds are estimated by propagating the uncertainty associated with specific modeling assumptions.

Physical Description

12 p.

Source

  • Submitted to: 44th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS Structures, Structural Dynamics and Materials Conference, Norfolk, Virginia, April 7-10, 2003

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  • Report No.: LA-UR-03-2152
  • Grant Number: none
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 976579
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc926370

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • January 1, 2003

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Nov. 13, 2016, 7:26 p.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Dec. 12, 2016, 5:54 p.m.

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Shinn, R. (Rachel); Hemez, F. M. (François M.) & Doebling, S. W. (Scott W.). Estimating the error in simulation prediction over the design space, article, January 1, 2003; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc926370/: accessed April 24, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.