Probabilistic assessment of a containment vessel's survivability to facilitate decision making and enhance quality assurance

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This paper presents a probabilistic approach for assessing the design and safety of an HSLA-100 Steel Confinement Vessel for particular types of detonations. Likelihood of failure for three different scenarios is considered. They are the likelihood a fragment, (1) penetrates half the containment vessel's thickness, (2) perforates through the containment vessel, and (3) perforates a secondary safety vessel given it's perforated the containment vessel. Uncertainties to be quantified include a fragment's geometry, orientation, and velocity. The governing equation for the likelihood of failure is the probability a large enough fragment exits, that it travels fast enough, and is in the ... continued below

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9 p.

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Dolin, Ronald M. January 1, 2001.

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Description

This paper presents a probabilistic approach for assessing the design and safety of an HSLA-100 Steel Confinement Vessel for particular types of detonations. Likelihood of failure for three different scenarios is considered. They are the likelihood a fragment, (1) penetrates half the containment vessel's thickness, (2) perforates through the containment vessel, and (3) perforates a secondary safety vessel given it's perforated the containment vessel. Uncertainties to be quantified include a fragment's geometry, orientation, and velocity. The governing equation for the likelihood of failure is the probability a large enough fragment exits, that it travels fast enough, and is in the proper orientation. The mathematical formulation of this probability expression is presented. The likelihood of failure is based on existing experimental evidence, theory, and expert judgment. Simulations are performed using Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling. The assessment model is used to verify and validate numerical predictions in the well-defined-well-documented, (WDWD) domain. Using Bayesian methods, confidence in numerical predictions is assessed within the WDWD domain so inferences beyond the domain can be made with confidence using only numerical analysis. The assessment model's influence diagram is evolved into a decision analysis model. Validation problems are presented to exercise the decision model.

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9 p.

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  • "Submitted to: International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Production Management, Universite Laral, Quebec City, Canada."

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  • Report No.: LA-UR-01-0696
  • Report No.: LA-UR-01-696
  • Grant Number: none
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 975135
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc926124

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • January 1, 2001

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Nov. 13, 2016, 7:26 p.m.

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  • Dec. 12, 2016, 12:46 p.m.

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Dolin, Ronald M. Probabilistic assessment of a containment vessel's survivability to facilitate decision making and enhance quality assurance, article, January 1, 2001; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc926124/: accessed October 19, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.