Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California Page: 8 of 30
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California is very dry during the summer and therefore this is not a significant factor
for this region.
In our analysis of changes in extreme heat we implicitly account for technology
and population change through atmosphere-ocean general circulation model
(AOGCMs) projections forced by the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES) [Nakicenovic' et al. 2000]. The SRES scenarios include a range of
population increases and accompanying technological and societal changes.
However, in the calculation of California's regional energy demand we hold
technology and population at today's levels in order to quantify the range of possible
outcomes as a perturbation about the historical demand. This perturbation approach
has been used in previous impact assessment studies [e.g. IPCC 2001, USGCRP
2000]. It provides a constrained estimate of potential outcomes that can be
extrapolated using a range of projected changes in population and technology
applied to demand. In our discussion we explore the possibility of such extrapolated
scenarios, although technological advancement is difficult, if not impossible, to
project beyond about a 10 year timeline due to the large uncertainties pertaining to
the rate of discovery, evaluation, and social adaptation of new technologies.
Similar to previous assessments of temperature and extreme heat increases for
California [e.g. Hayhoe et al. 2004; Cayan et al. 2006], we use three AOGCMs:
DOE/NCAR PCM [Washington et al. 2000], NOAA/GFDL CM2.1 [Delworth et al.
2006], and UKMO HadCM3 [Pope et al. 2000] model. As illustrated by Figure 1,
use of three AOGCMs captures the scientific uncertainty inherent in future
projections of temperature increases in response to human emissions. PCM lies at the
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Miller, N.L.; Hayhoe, K.; Jin, J. & Auffhammer, M. Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California, article, April 1, 2008; Berkeley, California. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc901337/m1/8/: accessed May 27, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.