Is Climate Change Predictable? Really?

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This project is the first application of a completely different approach to climate modeling, in which new prognostic equations are used to directly compute the evolution of two-point correlations. This project addresses three questions that are critical for the credibility of the science base for climate prediction: (1) What is the variability spectrum at equilibrium? (2) What is the rate of relaxation when subjected to external perturbations? (3) Can variations due to natural processes be distinguished from those due to transient external forces? The technical approach starts with the evolution equation for the probability distribution function and arrives at a ... continued below

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Dannevik, W P & Rotman, D A November 14, 2005.

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Description

This project is the first application of a completely different approach to climate modeling, in which new prognostic equations are used to directly compute the evolution of two-point correlations. This project addresses three questions that are critical for the credibility of the science base for climate prediction: (1) What is the variability spectrum at equilibrium? (2) What is the rate of relaxation when subjected to external perturbations? (3) Can variations due to natural processes be distinguished from those due to transient external forces? The technical approach starts with the evolution equation for the probability distribution function and arrives at a prognostic equation for ensemble-mean two-point correlations, bypassing the detailed weather calculation. This work will expand our basic understanding of the theoretical limits of climate prediction and stimulate new experiments to perform with conventional climate models. It will furnish statistical estimates that are inaccessible with conventional climate simulations and likely will raise important new questions about the very nature of climate change and about how (and whether) climate change can be predicted. Solid progress on such issues is vital to the credibility of the science base for climate change research and will provide policymakers evaluating tradeoffs among energy technology options and their attendant environmental and economic consequences.

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PDF-file: 3 pages; size: 57.7 Kbytes

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  • Report No.: UCRL-TR-217203
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • DOI: 10.2172/928157 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 928157
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc901151

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • November 14, 2005

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 27, 2016, 1:39 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Dec. 7, 2016, 3:50 p.m.

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Dannevik, W P & Rotman, D A. Is Climate Change Predictable? Really?, report, November 14, 2005; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc901151/: accessed September 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.