Power System Modeling of 20percent Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030 Page: 6 of 11
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Wind (MW) Used
Inside the BA
Wt d (MW) on - e0t-300
Transmission Lnes 300i-500
Existing New 500 -100
1 r g- 200 - 1000 -5000
" - 200 - 500 SD500
500 - 1090
- -- > 1000
Total Between BA Transfer >= 100 MW (all power classes, land-based and offshore) in 2030.
Arrows originate and terminate at the centroid of the BA for visualization purposes: they do not
represe nt physical locations of transmission lines. 20 w, q, 192W
I iy 1-/ A.''
Fig. 4. Use of wind-generated electricity within a region or transmitted on current or new transmission lines in 2030
explicitly estimate additional transmission lines required to
improve reliability7. A national transmission expansion plan
using 765-kV lines that could accommodate up to 400 GW of
new capacity was developed by AEP . A plan of this nature
would improve reliability and provide access to geographically
dispersed wind resources. Although the methodologies used by
the WinDS analysis (shown here) and the AEP study (not
shown here) are different, the resulting cost of both scenarios
is similar, about $60 billion (with no discounting).
III. COSTS AND BENEFITS
The 20% Wind scenario is contrasted with a scenario in
which no additional wind energy is added after 2006 (No New
Wind) to quantify the potential costs and benefits of
incorporating this level of wind technology in the nation's
electricity generation portfolio. In both scenarios, the various
conventional generation technologies are economically
optimized in the absence of any policies that would alter the
composition of the generation portfolio from that of today,
e.g., no carbon mitigation policies are assumed.
The capacity and corresponding energy generation by
technology in the year 2030 are shown in Fig. 5 and Fig. 6,
respectively, for the 20% Wind scenario and the No New Wind
scenario. Incorporating 305 GW of wind energy by 2030
avoids the installation of about 80 GW of coal-based
generation technology and reduces coal-based electricity
generation by 18%. Natural gas combustion turbine capacity is
7In the WinDS model the cost of each new transmission line is augmented
with the cost of a portion of a duplicate transmission line to maintain system
increased in the 20% Wind scenario to maintain grid
reliability, though the use of this combustion turbine capacity
is limited. Electricity generated largely from combined-cycle
Fig. 5. Electricity sector capacity by technology in 2030
natural gas plants is reduced 50% in the 20% wind scenario
relative to the No New Wind case. Installed capacity and
electricity generation from hydro and nuclear technologies are
essentially the same in both scenarios.
Q 20% Wind
* No New Wind
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Bolinger, Mark A; Hand, Maureen; Blair, Nate; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Hern, Tracy et al. Power System Modeling of 20percent Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030, article, June 9, 2008; Berkeley, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc900148/m1/6/: accessed November 14, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.