Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables

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The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single model ... continued below

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Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B; Pasyanos, M E; Flanagan, M P; Myers, S C et al. July 9, 2007.

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The use of 3-D geophysical models to predict nuclear test ban monitoring observables (phase travel times, amplitudes, dispersion, etc.) is widely anticipated to provide improvements in the basic seismic monitoring functions of detection, association, location, discrimination and yield estimation. A number of questions arise when contemplating a transition from 1-D, 2-D and 2.5-D models to constructing and using 3-D models, among them: (1) Can a 3-D geophysical model or a collection of 3-D models provide measurably improved predictions of seismic monitoring observables over existing 1-D models, or 2-D and 2 1/2-D models currently under development? (2) Is a single model that can predict all observables achievable, or must separate models be devised for each observable? How should joint inversion of disparate observable data be performed, if required? (3) What are the options for model representation? Are multi-resolution models essential? How does representation affect the accuracy and speed of observable predictions? (4) How should model uncertainty be estimated, represented and how should it be used? Are stochastic models desirable? (5) What data types should be used to construct the models? What quality control regime should be established? (6) How will 3-D models be used in operations? Will significant improvements in the basic monitoring functions result from the use of 3-D models? Will the calculation of observables through 3-D models be fast enough for real-time use or must a strategy of pre-computation be employed? (7) What are the theoretical limits to 3-D model development (resolution, uncertainty) and performance in predicting monitoring observables? How closely can those limits be approached with projected data availability, station distribution and inverse methods? (8) What priorities should be placed on the acquisition of event ground truth information, deployment of new stations, development of new inverse techniques, exploitation of large-scale computing and other activities in the pursuit of 3-D model development and use? In this paper, we examine what technical issues must be addressed to answer these questions. Although convened for a somewhat broader purpose, the June 2007 Workshop on Multi-resolution 3D Earth Models held in Berkeley, CA also touched on this topic. Results from the workshop are summarized in this paper.

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PDF-file: 12 pages; size: 0.7 Mbytes

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  • Presented at: Monitoring Research Review, Denver, CO, United States, Sep 25 - Sep 27, 2007

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  • Report No.: UCRL-CONF-232613
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 920860
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc899436

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  • July 9, 2007

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  • Sept. 27, 2016, 1:39 a.m.

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  • Nov. 23, 2016, 11:28 a.m.

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Harris, D B; Zucca, J J; McCallen, D B; Pasyanos, M E; Flanagan, M P; Myers, S C et al. Considerations on the Use of 3-D Geophysical Models to Predict Test Ban Monitoring Observables, article, July 9, 2007; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc899436/: accessed September 22, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.