Lessons Learned from Dependency Usage in HERA: Implications for THERP-Related HRA Methods

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Dependency occurs when the probability of success or failure on one action changes the probability of success or failure on a subsequent action. Dependency may serve as a modifier on the human error probabilities (HEPs) for successive actions in human reliability analysis (HRA) models. Discretion should be employed when determining whether or not a dependency calculation is warranted: dependency should not be assigned without strongly grounded reasons. Human reliability analysts may sometimes assign dependency in cases where it is unwarranted. This inappropriate assignment is attributed to a lack of clear guidance to encompass the range of scenarios human reliability analysts ... continued below

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Whaley, April M.; Boring, Ronald L.; Blackman, Harold S.; McCabe, Patrick H. & Hallbert, Bruce P. August 1, 2007.

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Dependency occurs when the probability of success or failure on one action changes the probability of success or failure on a subsequent action. Dependency may serve as a modifier on the human error probabilities (HEPs) for successive actions in human reliability analysis (HRA) models. Discretion should be employed when determining whether or not a dependency calculation is warranted: dependency should not be assigned without strongly grounded reasons. Human reliability analysts may sometimes assign dependency in cases where it is unwarranted. This inappropriate assignment is attributed to a lack of clear guidance to encompass the range of scenarios human reliability analysts are addressing. Inappropriate assignment of dependency produces inappropriately elevated HEP values. Lessons learned about dependency usage in the Human Event Repository and Analysis (HERA) system may provide clarification and guidance for analysts using first-generation HRA methods. This paper presents the HERA approach to dependency assessment and discusses considerations for dependency usage in HRA, including the cognitive basis for dependency, direction for determining when dependency should be assessed, considerations for determining the dependency level, temporal issues to consider when assessing dependency, (e.g., considering task sequence versus overall event sequence, and dependency over long periods of time), and diagnosis and action influences on dependency.

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  • Joint 8th Annual Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants and the 13th Annual Workshop on Human ,Monterey, CA,08/26/2007,08/31/2007

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  • Report No.: INL/CON-07-12863
  • Grant Number: DE-AC07-99ID-13727
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 919562
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc897130

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  • August 1, 2007

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  • Sept. 27, 2016, 1:39 a.m.

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  • Nov. 29, 2016, 6:29 p.m.

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Whaley, April M.; Boring, Ronald L.; Blackman, Harold S.; McCabe, Patrick H. & Hallbert, Bruce P. Lessons Learned from Dependency Usage in HERA: Implications for THERP-Related HRA Methods, article, August 1, 2007; [Idaho Falls, Idaho]. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc897130/: accessed November 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.