Probability Estimation of CO2 Leakage Through Faults at Geologic Carbon Sequestration Sites

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Leakage of CO{sub 2} and brine along faults at geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites is a primary concern for storage integrity. The focus of this study is on the estimation of the probability of leakage along faults or fractures. This leakage probability is controlled by the probability of a connected network of conduits existing at a given site, the probability of this network encountering the CO{sub 2} plume, and the probability of this network intersecting environmental resources that may be impacted by leakage. This work is designed to fit into a risk assessment and certification framework that uses compartments to ... continued below

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Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curt; Finsterle, Stefan; Jordan, Preston & Zhang, Keni November 1, 2008.

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Description

Leakage of CO{sub 2} and brine along faults at geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites is a primary concern for storage integrity. The focus of this study is on the estimation of the probability of leakage along faults or fractures. This leakage probability is controlled by the probability of a connected network of conduits existing at a given site, the probability of this network encountering the CO{sub 2} plume, and the probability of this network intersecting environmental resources that may be impacted by leakage. This work is designed to fit into a risk assessment and certification framework that uses compartments to represent vulnerable resources such as potable groundwater, health and safety, and the near-surface environment. The method we propose includes using percolation theory to estimate the connectivity of the faults, and generating fuzzy rules from discrete fracture network simulations to estimate leakage probability. By this approach, the probability of CO{sub 2} escaping into a compartment for a given system can be inferred from the fuzzy rules. The proposed method provides a quick way of estimating the probability of CO{sub 2} or brine leaking into a compartment. In addition, it provides the uncertainty range of the estimated probability.

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  • GHGT9 Conference, Washington DC, Nov. 16-20, 2008

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  • Report No.: LBNL-1415E
  • Grant Number: DE-AC02-05CH11231
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 946458
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc896527

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • November 1, 2008

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 27, 2016, 1:39 a.m.

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  • Sept. 29, 2017, 5:25 p.m.

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Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curt; Finsterle, Stefan; Jordan, Preston & Zhang, Keni. Probability Estimation of CO2 Leakage Through Faults at Geologic Carbon Sequestration Sites, article, November 1, 2008; Berkeley, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc896527/: accessed December 15, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.