Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).

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Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured ... continued below

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32 p.

Creation Information

Marzouk, Youssef M.; Zurn, Rena M.; Boggs, Paul T.; Diegert, Kathleen V. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Red-Horse, John Robert (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM) & Pebay, Philippe Pierre May 1, 2007.

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Description

Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback.

Physical Description

32 p.

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  • Report No.: SAND2007-2758
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/922080 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 922080
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc895865

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  • May 1, 2007

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 27, 2016, 1:39 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Dec. 2, 2016, 8:35 p.m.

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Marzouk, Youssef M.; Zurn, Rena M.; Boggs, Paul T.; Diegert, Kathleen V. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Red-Horse, John Robert (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM) & Pebay, Philippe Pierre. Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report)., report, May 1, 2007; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc895865/: accessed September 22, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.