Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968-2004

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. Adjusted data analyzed involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 ''adverse'' events (each causing {ge}1 victim), and 86,568 ''casualties'' (injuries) of which 25,408 were fatal. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (IS) have differed markedly from those of all other regions combined (OR). IS had a fatal fraction of casualties about half ... continued below

Physical Description

PDF-file: 45 pages; size: 2.3 Mbytes

Creation Information

Bogen, K T & Jones, E D February 10, 2005.

Context

This article is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 12 times . More information about this article can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this article or its content.

Publisher

Provided By

UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Serving as both a federal and a state depository library, the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department maintains millions of items in a variety of formats. The department is a member of the FDLP Content Partnerships Program and an Affiliated Archive of the National Archives.

Contact Us

What

Descriptive information to help identify this article. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Description

Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. Adjusted data analyzed involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 ''adverse'' events (each causing {ge}1 victim), and 86,568 ''casualties'' (injuries) of which 25,408 were fatal. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (IS) have differed markedly from those of all other regions combined (OR). IS had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of OR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in OR that increased {approx}100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14 to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2.5% (or 10%) of harm-ranked events in OR (or IS). Extreme values of victim/event rates were approximated fairly well by generalized Pareto models (typically used to fit to data on forest fires, sea levels, earthquakes, etc.). These results were in turn used to forecast maximum OR- and IS-specific victims/event rates through 2080, illustrating empirically based methods that could be applied to improve strategies to assess, prevent and manage terror-related risks and consequences.

Physical Description

PDF-file: 45 pages; size: 2.3 Mbytes

Source

  • Journal Name: Risk Analysis; Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 1

Language

Item Type

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this article in the Digital Library or other systems.

  • Report No.: UCRL-JRNL-210608
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 883758
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc892627

Collections

This article is part of the following collection of related materials.

Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

What responsibilities do I have when using this article?

When

Dates and time periods associated with this article.

Creation Date

  • February 10, 2005

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 23, 2016, 2:42 p.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Dec. 8, 2016, 9:16 p.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this article last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 0
Total Uses: 12

Interact With This Article

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

International Image Interoperability Framework

IIF Logo

We support the IIIF Presentation API

Bogen, K T & Jones, E D. Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968-2004, article, February 10, 2005; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc892627/: accessed December 13, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.