Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

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Description

In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This ... continued below

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40 p.

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Darby, John L. March 1, 2007.

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Description

In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

Physical Description

40 p.

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  • Report No.: SAND2007-1301
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/903426 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 903426
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc890582

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • March 1, 2007

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 22, 2016, 2:13 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Nov. 29, 2016, 6:43 p.m.

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Darby, John L. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application., report, March 1, 2007; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc890582/: accessed April 21, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.