Preliminary Examination of the Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity Page: 9 of 15
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Table 4. Estimated "New" Renewable Energy Capacity and Generation for 2007
Estimated Estimated
"New" "New"
Capacity Generation
Primary generator fuel (MW) (MWh)
Agricultural crop byproducts 182.4 502,870
Black liquor 206.2 871,151
Geothermal 175.0 1,466,775
Landfill gas 485.0 2,884,644
Municipal solid waste 51.2 132,547
Other biomass solid 24.5 69,760
Other biomass liquid 2.0 0
Other biomass gases 28.2 41,033
Solar energy 80.1 149,466
Small hydroelectric (530MW) 332.0 1,175,843
Wood, wood waste solids 174.9 933,810
Wind power 12,178.9 30,006,736
Total 13,867.9 38,088,486
Our final task for the supply-side analysis is to project potential renewable electricity supply to
2010. It is evident from Table 4 that wind energy represents a majority of the "new" renewable
electricity supply. While increased deployment activity is occurring across all renewable electric
technologies, over the next three years we expect that wind energy will continue to dominate
new renewables capacity additions. Thus, for first-order projection purposes, we focus on the
design of two different scenarios for wind capacity additions while assuming again for simplicity
that deployment of the other renewable energy technologies occurs at their respective recent
historical rates. That is, for each technology a separate growth rate is used. In this respect, our
projections most likely underestimate the contribution from other renewable energy sources.
Our projections present two scenarios for wind energy additions from 2008 to 2010: 1) a base
case, which assumes constant additions of 4,000 MW of wind energy per year through 2010
based on a revised preliminary wind industry estimate of additions in 200716-and 2) a high
case, which assumes 5,000 MW of new capacity in 2007 and 2008, 6,000 MW in 2009, and
7,000 MW in 2010. Table 5 presents the resulting renewable electricity supply for these two
scenarios.
15 This analysis does not account for incremental capacity additions-such as re-powering-to plants built on or
after January 1, 1997, which may in some cases be considered "new" generating capacity.
16 Assumption based on recent discussions with the American Wind Energy Association. AWEA earlier estimated
3,000 MW of new capacity in 2007, but is revising that estimate upwards. See American Wind Energy Association,
"AWEA Quarterly Market Report: U.S. Wind Power Industry Looks At Record Year, Supply Chain Constraints"
August 8, 2007. http://www.awea.org/newsroom/releases/AWEA Quarterly Market Report 080807.html5
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Swezey, B.; Aabakken, J. & Bird, L. Preliminary Examination of the Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity, report, October 1, 2007; Golden, Colorado. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc888775/m1/9/: accessed April 18, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.