Geographically Based Hydrogen Consumer Demand and Infrastructure Analysis: Final Report Page: 6 of 35
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infrastructure analysis is a key component in the development of a hydrogen transportation system.
Understanding consumer demand on a geographic basis is an important part of this analysis. Matching
emerging hydrogen demand with emerging infrastructure is critical to a successful transition.
In fiscal years (FY) 2004 and 2005, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a
proposed minimal infrastructure to support nationwide deployment of hydrogen vehicles by offering
infrastructure scenarios that facilitated interstate travel. The current (FY 2006) project aims to identify
key metropolitan areas and regions on which to focus infrastructure efforts during the early hydrogen
The objectives of this analysis are the following:
1. Quantify projected hydrogen vehicle demand across the country and in targeted metropolitan
2. Quantify the projected hydrogen fuel demands corresponding with different levels of hydrogen
vehicle demand to inform infrastructure analyses such as citing hydrogen fueling stations and
selecting between centralized and distributed hydrogen production.
There are two general types of vehicle purchasers: consumers and fleets. Both groups have unique
characteristics that affect how they choose vehicles to purchase and drive. This study examines how
hydrogen vehicles could be deployed nationwide based on the consumer market.
Various factors influence a consumer's vehicle purchase decision, including purchaser characteristics
(e.g., income and age) and external factors (e.g., vehicle rebates, interest rates, and tax incentives). To
match emerging consumer demand for hydrogen vehicles with transitional hydrogen infrastructure, the
spatial/geographic component of consumer demand must be understood. This analysis projects consumer
demand for hydrogen vehicles based on geographic distribution and suggests how this demand would
affect infrastructure requirements.
The analysis consists of the following steps:
" Define Demographics: Key attributes affecting consumer acceptance of hydrogen vehicles are
identified and spatially analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS).
" Score and Weight Each Attribute: Values are assigned to each attribute, and a total "score" is
identified representing the likelihood of a consumer purchasing/operating a hydrogen vehicle.
" Conduct Stakeholder Review and Sensitivity Analyses: Stakeholder review and sensitivity
analyses ensure that scores assigned for each demographic/characteristic are acceptable.
" Suggest Vehicle and Fuel Demand Scenarios at Various Penetration Rates: Hydrogen vehicle
and fuel demands are evaluated for various rates of hydrogen vehicle penetration (e.g., 1%, 5%,
Key attributes affecting hydrogen vehicle penetration into the consumer market were identified through a
literature search (from FY 2004 and 2005 work) and interviews with vehicle technology transition
experts, then reviewed and ranked by a focus group consisting of NREL personnel with expertise in
advanced technology vehicle deployment (Table 1). These assumptions were also confirmed by various
market studies and analyses related to hybrid and hydrogen vehicles conducted by researchers at UC
Davis and Synovate.
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Melendez, M. & Milbrandt, A. Geographically Based Hydrogen Consumer Demand and Infrastructure Analysis: Final Report, report, October 1, 2006; Golden, Colorado. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc887690/m1/6/: accessed April 23, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.