Geographically Based Hydrogen Consumer Demand and Infrastructure Analysis: Final Report Page: 18 of 35
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New York-Northern NJ-Long Island
Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
13) Minneapolis-St. Paul
15) Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint
19) Providence-Fall River-Warwick
To translate the relative demand weightings into actual quantities of hydrogen fuel demand in kilograms,
the calculated values (very high, high, very good, good, fair, and low) were applied to the penetration of
vehicles across the country. Using the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimate for passenger
vehicles in the United States in 2030-281 million vehicles-hydrogen vehicles were distributed
nationwide based on the relative demand weightings in each area of the country and penetration rates of
1%, 5%, and 10% using the following methodology.
# Cells x Cel/Weighting
VehiclesPerCell(low) = LOW
VehiclePenetration x USVehicleFleet
This resulted in the total number of vehicles in a cell categorized as "low". To get the values for the
number of vehicles per cell for cells categorized as "fair" through "very high", the low values were
multiplied by 2 through 7 respectively.
An annual consumption of 250 kg per vehicle was used to calculate the annual demand for hydrogen.
The hydrogen fuel demand for each 20-mile x 20-mile cell was calculated using the above equations and
is shown in Table 17. These values represent the maximum likely hydrogen fuel demand in each cell
based on the relative demand from cell to cell.
Table 17. Annual Hydrogen Fuel Demand
Based on Relative Consumer Demand for Hydrogen Vehicles
Individual Cell (20 x 20 mi2) Hydrogen Fuel
Relative Hydrogen Vehicle Demand (1,000 kg/day)
Demand Weightings 1% 5% 10%
Penetration Penetration Penetration
Very high 302 1,508 3,016
High 251 1,257 2,514
Very good 201 1,005 2,011
Good 151 754 1,508
Fair 101 503 1,005
Low 50 251 503
At a 1% penetration, the demand for a cell with a "low" likelihood of hydrogen vehicle demand would
range from 0 to 135 kg/day. At the same vehicle penetration rate, an area of "very high" demand would
be up to 827 kg/day. Using these assumptions, all areas, even with high demand, could be served by
small, forecourt stations in the early transition, where there is only a 1% penetration into the US fleet.
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Melendez, M. & Milbrandt, A. Geographically Based Hydrogen Consumer Demand and Infrastructure Analysis: Final Report, report, October 1, 2006; Golden, Colorado. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc887690/m1/18/: accessed April 23, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.