Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in Super ESPCs Page: 4 of 6
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Case study
While the theoretical basis for QUA is well established and widely used in other
domains, the primary objective of this pilot project was to assess the practical
implications of applying QUA to Super ESPCs. The QUA project team sought Super
ESPC projects that: a) were in the initial stages and in which M&V decisions were not
yet made; b) had multiple energy-saving measures involving several M&V choices; and
c) had a project facilitator, agency and ESCO that were willing to apply QUA to their
Super ESPC.
This approach was used to analyze the savings uncertainty in a Super ESPC at a major
federal agency, which included lighting, HVAC, and some cost-avoidance energy
conservation measures (ECMs). QUA was done for each of these ECMs, as well as for
the project as a whole. For the individual ECMs, the analysis was done at varying levels
of granularity, depending on the size of the ECM - for larger ECMs, the analysis was
more fine-grained i.e. probability distributions were applied to more inputs. Some
examples of the findings from QUA include the following:
" A more measurement-intensive M&V plan for the lighting ECM would have
reduced uncertainty by only $6000, which would not cover the increased M&V
costs, thus validating the proposed M&V plan
" Uncertainty analysis on a steam trap replacement ECM suggested that the ESCO
estimate may have been more conservative than necessary in discounting the savings
estimate and may be "leaving money on the table."
" While conducting the uncertainty analysis for a cost avoidance ECM, it was
discovered that a contractual anomaly could result in the potential for significantly
reduced cost-avoidance savings, and almost double the portfolio savings risk.
Thus, in some cases the QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while
in other cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&V plan.
Besides analysis of the uncertainty for individual ECMs, QUA is also useful for assessing
the impact of the portfolio effect in reducing overall savings uncertainty. Many agencies4
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Kumar, Satish & Mathew, Paul. Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in Super ESPCs, report, August 15, 2005; Berkeley, California. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc887035/m1/4/: accessed April 25, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.