Effects of Temporal Wind Patterns on the Value of Wind-GeneratedElectricity at Different Sites in California and the Northwest

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Wind power production varies on a diurnal and seasonal basis. In this paper, we use wind speed data from three different sources to assess the effects of wind timing on the value of electric power from potential wind farm locations in California and the Northwestern United States. By ''value'', we refer to either the contribution of wind power to meeting the electric system's peak loads, or the financial value of wind power in electricity markets. Sites for wind power projects are often screened or compared based on the annual average power production that would be expected from wind turbines at ... continued below

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Fripp, Matthias & Wiser, Ryan August 4, 2006.

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Wind power production varies on a diurnal and seasonal basis. In this paper, we use wind speed data from three different sources to assess the effects of wind timing on the value of electric power from potential wind farm locations in California and the Northwestern United States. By ''value'', we refer to either the contribution of wind power to meeting the electric system's peak loads, or the financial value of wind power in electricity markets. Sites for wind power projects are often screened or compared based on the annual average power production that would be expected from wind turbines at each site (Baban and Parry 2001; Brower et al. 2004; Jangamshetti and Rau 2001; Nielsen et al. 2002; Roy 2002; Schwartz 1999). However, at many locations, variations in wind speeds during the day and year are correlated with variations in the electric power system's load and wholesale market prices (Burton et al. 2001; Carlin 1983; Kennedy and Rogers 2003; Man Bae and Devine 1978; Sezgen et al. 1998); this correlation may raise or lower the value of wind power generated at each location. A number of previous reports address this issue somewhat indirectly by studying the contribution of individual wind power sites to the reliability or economic operation of the electric grid, using hourly wind speed data (Fleten et al.; Kahn 1991; Kirby et al. 2003; Milligan 2002; van Wijk et al. 1992). However, we have not identified any previous study that examines the effect of variations in wind timing across a broad geographical area on wholesale market value or capacity contribution of those different wind power sites. We have done so, to determine whether it is important to consider wind-timing when planning wind power development, and to try to identify locations where timing would have a more positive or negative effect. The research reported in this paper seeks to answer three specific questions: (1) How large of an effect can the temporal variation of wind power have on the value of wind in different wind resource areas? (2) Which locations are affected most positively or negatively by the seasonal and diurnal timing of wind speeds? (3) How compatible are wind resources in California and the Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming) with wholesale power prices and loads in either region? The latter question is motivated by the fact that wind power projects in the Northwest could sell their output into California (and vice versa), and that California has an aggressive renewable energy policy that may ultimately yield such imports. We also assess whether modeled wind data from TrueWind Solutions, LLC, can help answer such questions, by comparing results found using the TrueWind data to those found using anemometers or wind farm power production data. This paper summarizes results that are presented in more detail in a recent report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Fripp and Wiser 2006). The full report is available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/re-pubs.html.

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  • 26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, AnnArbor, Michigan, September 24-27, 2006

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  • Report No.: LBNL--61358
  • Grant Number: DE-AC02-05CH11231
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 900947
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc886846

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  • August 4, 2006

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  • Sept. 22, 2016, 2:13 a.m.

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  • Sept. 29, 2016, 2:31 p.m.

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Fripp, Matthias & Wiser, Ryan. Effects of Temporal Wind Patterns on the Value of Wind-GeneratedElectricity at Different Sites in California and the Northwest, article, August 4, 2006; Berkeley, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc886846/: accessed June 18, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.