A Test of a Strong Ground Motion Prediction Methodology for the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens Earthquake

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We test a methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for a fixed magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). We modeled ground motion with empirical Green's functions. We tested our methodology with the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens earthquake, we: (1) developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of earthquake rupture processes and sources in the region; (2) generated impulsive point shear source empirical Green's functions by deconvolving out the source contribution of M < 4.0 aftershocks; (3) ... continued below

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Hutchings, L; Ioannidou, E; Voulgaris, N; Kalogeras, I; Savy, J; Foxall, W et al. August 6, 2004.

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We test a methodology to predict the range of ground-motion hazard for a fixed magnitude earthquake along a specific fault or within a specific source volume, and we demonstrate how to incorporate this into probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). We modeled ground motion with empirical Green's functions. We tested our methodology with the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens earthquake, we: (1) developed constraints on rupture parameters based on prior knowledge of earthquake rupture processes and sources in the region; (2) generated impulsive point shear source empirical Green's functions by deconvolving out the source contribution of M < 4.0 aftershocks; (3) used aftershocks that occurred throughout the area and not necessarily along the fault to be modeled; (4) ran a sufficient number of scenario earthquakes to span the full variability of ground motion possible; (5) found that our distribution of synthesized ground motions span what actually occurred and their distribution is realistically narrow; (6) determined that one of our source models generates records that match observed time histories well; (7) found that certain combinations of rupture parameters produced ''extreme'' ground motions at some stations; (8) identified that the ''best fitting'' rupture models occurred in the vicinity of 38.05{sup o} N 23.60{sup o} W with center of rupture near 12 km, and near unilateral rupture towards the areas of high damage, and this is consistent with independent investigations; and (9) synthesized strong motion records in high damage areas for which records from the earthquake were not recorded. We then developed a demonstration PSHA for a source region near Athens utilizing synthesized ground motion rather that traditional attenuation. We synthesized 500 earthquakes distributed throughout the source zone likely to have Mw=6.0 earthquakes near Athens. We assumed an average return period of 1000 years for this magnitude earthquake in the particular source zone, thereby having simulated a catalog of ground motion for a period of 500,000 years. The distribution of traditional ground motion parameters of peak acceleration or spectral ordinates then becomes the synthesized record from which we develop hazard curves in the form of the annual probability of exceedance. This approach replaces the aleatory uncertainty that current PSHA studies estimate by regression of empirical parameters from the worldwide database with epistemic uncertainty on what specific sources actually do at specific sites. This is a fundamental change for PSHA and eliminates the need to extrapolate current empirical data that was gathered over about 50 years to represent values for 10{sup -3} annual probability of exceedance or less. This difference becomes especially significant for very sensitive structures that require estimates for 10{sup -5} or less exceedance.

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PDF-file: 58 pages; size: 15.4 Mbytes

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  • Journal Name: Geophysical Journal International, vol. 168, january 2007, January 15, 2007, pp. 21; Journal Volume: 168

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  • Report No.: UCRL-JRNL-206091
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 907876
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc886511

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  • August 6, 2004

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  • Sept. 22, 2016, 2:13 a.m.

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  • Dec. 7, 2016, 11:01 p.m.

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Hutchings, L; Ioannidou, E; Voulgaris, N; Kalogeras, I; Savy, J; Foxall, W et al. A Test of a Strong Ground Motion Prediction Methodology for the 7 September 1999, Mw=6.0 Athens Earthquake, article, August 6, 2004; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc886511/: accessed November 18, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.