Final Report - From Measurements to Models: Cross-Comparison of Measured and Simulated Behavioral States of the Atmosphere Page: 1 of 3
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Final Report, DOE Interagency Agreement No. DE-AI02-05ER63958
From Measurements to Models: Cross-Comparison of Measured and Simulated Behavioral
States of the Atmosphere
Anthony D. Del Genio (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies), PI
Forrest M. Hoffman and William W. Hargrove, Jr. (DOE/ORNL), Co-Is
The DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) sites and the ARM
Mobile Facility (AMF) were constructed to make measurements of the atmosphere and radiation
system in order to quantify deficiencies in the simulation of clouds within models and to make
improvements in those models. While the measurement infrastructure of ARM is well-developed
and a model parameterization testbed capability has been established, additional effort is needed
to develop statistical techniques which permit the comparison of simulation output from
atmospheric models with actual measurements. Our project established a new methodology for
objectively comparing ARM measurements to the outputs of leading global climate models and
reanalysis data. The quantitative basis for this comparison is provided by a statistical procedure
which establishes an exhaustive set of mutually-exclusive, recurring states of the atmosphere
from sets of multivariate atmospheric and cloud conditions, and then classifies multivariate
measurements or simulation outputs into those states. Whether measurements and models
classify the atmosphere into the same states at specific locations through time provides an
unequivocal comparison result. Times and locations in both geographic and state space of model-
measurement agreement and disagreement will suggest directions for the collection of additional
measurements at existing sites, provide insight into the global representativeness of the current
ARM sites (suggesting locations and times for use of the AMF), and provide a basis for
improvement of models. Below we describe the results of two projects completed under the
auspices of this Interagency Agreement that use the cluster analysis approach.
2.) Simulations of anthropogenic climate changes in the hydrological cycle
Changes in Earth's climate in response to atmospheric greenhouse gas buildup impact the
health of terrestrial ecosystems and the hydrologic cycle. The environmental conditions
influential to plant and animal life are often mapped as ecoregions, which are land areas having
similar combinations of environmental characteristics. This idea is extended to establish regions
of similarity with respect to climatic characteristics that evolve through time using a quantitative
statistical clustering technique called Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Clustering (MSTC). MSTC
was applied to the monthly time series output from a fully coupled general circulation model
(GCM) called the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Results from an ensemble of five 99-yr
Business-As-Usual (BAU) transient simulations from 2000 to 2098 were analyzed (Hoffman et
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Del Genio, Anthony D; Hoffman, Forrest M & Hargrove, Jr, William W. Final Report - From Measurements to Models: Cross-Comparison of Measured and Simulated Behavioral States of the Atmosphere, report, October 22, 2007; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc885711/m1/1/: accessed January 22, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.