Modeling of Uncertainties in Major Drivers in U.S. Electricity Markets: Preprint

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This paper presents information on the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) model. DOE and NREL are developing this new model, intended to address many of the shortcomings of the current suite of energy models. Once fully built, the salient qualities of SEDS will include full probabilistic treatment of the major uncertainties in national energy forecasts; code compactness for desktop application; user-friendly interface for a reasonably trained analyst; run-time within limits acceptable for quick-response analysis; choice of detailed or aggregate representations; and transparency of design, code, and assumptions. Moreover, SEDS development will be increasingly collaborative, as DOE and NREL will be ... continued below

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21 p.

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Short, W.; Ferguson, T. & Leifman, M. September 1, 2006.

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Description

This paper presents information on the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) model. DOE and NREL are developing this new model, intended to address many of the shortcomings of the current suite of energy models. Once fully built, the salient qualities of SEDS will include full probabilistic treatment of the major uncertainties in national energy forecasts; code compactness for desktop application; user-friendly interface for a reasonably trained analyst; run-time within limits acceptable for quick-response analysis; choice of detailed or aggregate representations; and transparency of design, code, and assumptions. Moreover, SEDS development will be increasingly collaborative, as DOE and NREL will be coordinating with multiple national laboratories and other institutions, making SEDS nearly an 'open source' project. The collaboration will utilize the best expertise on specific sectors and problems, and also allow constant examination and review of the model. This paper outlines the rationale for this project and a description of its alpha version, as well as some example results. It also describes some of the expected development efforts in SEDS.

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21 p.

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  • To be presented at the 26th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference; 24-27 September 2006; Ann Arbor, Michigan

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  • Report No.: NREL/CP-620-40451
  • Grant Number: AC36-99-GO10337
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 891599
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc883929

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

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  • September 1, 2006

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 21, 2016, 2:29 a.m.

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  • April 4, 2017, 1:49 p.m.

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Short, W.; Ferguson, T. & Leifman, M. Modeling of Uncertainties in Major Drivers in U.S. Electricity Markets: Preprint, article, September 1, 2006; Golden, Colorado. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc883929/: accessed September 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.