Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks. Metadata

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Title

  • Main Title Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks.

Creator

  • Author: McFarland, John
    Creator Type: Personal
  • Author: Swiler, Laura Painton
    Creator Type: Personal

Contributor

  • Sponsor: United States. Department of Energy.
    Contributor Type: Organization

Publisher

  • Name: Sandia National Laboratories
    Place of Publication: United States

Date

  • Creation: 2005-11-01

Language

  • English

Description

  • Content Description: The thermal challenge problem has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories as a testbed for demonstrating various types of validation approaches and prediction methods. This report discusses one particular methodology to assess the validity of a computational model given experimental data. This methodology is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and can incorporate uncertainty in experimental measurements, in physical quantities, and model uncertainties. The approach uses the prior and posterior distributions of model output to compute a validation metric based on Bayesian hypothesis testing (a Bayes' factor). This report discusses various aspects of the BBN, specifically in the context of the thermal challenge problem. A BBN is developed for a given set of experimental data in a particular experimental configuration. The development of the BBN and the method for ''solving'' the BBN to develop the posterior distribution of model output through Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling is discussed in detail. The use of the BBN to compute a Bayes' factor is demonstrated.
  • Physical Description: 26 p.

Subject

  • Keyword: Forecasting
  • Keyword: Thermal Analysis.
  • STI Subject Categories: 99 General And Miscellaneous//Mathematics, Computing, And Information Science
  • Keyword: Calculation Methods Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory.
  • Keyword: Bayesian Statistical Decision Theory.
  • Keyword: Computer Codes
  • Keyword: Validation

Collection

  • Name: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports
    Code: OSTI

Institution

  • Name: UNT Libraries Government Documents Department
    Code: UNTGD

Resource Type

  • Report

Format

  • Text

Identifier

  • Report No.: SAND2005-5980
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/875636
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 875636
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc879322
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