Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks.

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The thermal challenge problem has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories as a testbed for demonstrating various types of validation approaches and prediction methods. This report discusses one particular methodology to assess the validity of a computational model given experimental data. This methodology is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and can incorporate uncertainty in experimental measurements, in physical quantities, and model uncertainties. The approach uses the prior and posterior distributions of model output to compute a validation metric based on Bayesian hypothesis testing (a Bayes' factor). This report discusses various aspects of the BBN, specifically in the context of ... continued below

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26 p.

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McFarland, John & Swiler, Laura Painton November 1, 2005.

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Description

The thermal challenge problem has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories as a testbed for demonstrating various types of validation approaches and prediction methods. This report discusses one particular methodology to assess the validity of a computational model given experimental data. This methodology is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and can incorporate uncertainty in experimental measurements, in physical quantities, and model uncertainties. The approach uses the prior and posterior distributions of model output to compute a validation metric based on Bayesian hypothesis testing (a Bayes' factor). This report discusses various aspects of the BBN, specifically in the context of the thermal challenge problem. A BBN is developed for a given set of experimental data in a particular experimental configuration. The development of the BBN and the method for ''solving'' the BBN to develop the posterior distribution of model output through Monte Carlo Markov Chain sampling is discussed in detail. The use of the BBN to compute a Bayes' factor is demonstrated.

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26 p.

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  • Report No.: SAND2005-5980
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/875636 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 875636
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc879322

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • November 1, 2005

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 21, 2016, 2:29 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Dec. 2, 2016, 6:06 p.m.

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McFarland, John & Swiler, Laura Painton. Validation of the thermal challenge problem using Bayesian Belief Networks., report, November 1, 2005; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc879322/: accessed October 17, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.