Contributions of weather and fuel mix to recent declines in U.S.energy and carbon intensity Page: 2 of 48
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1. INTRODUCTION
In the latter half of the 1990s, U.S. economic growth accelerated without increases of
corresponding magnitudes in energy consumption and carbon emissions. As a result,
aggregate indices of carbon and energy intensity, which are ratios of economy-wide
energy use and carbon emissions to Gross Domestic Product, also declined at an
accelerated rate during this period.1 Should it prove to be more than a transitory shift,
this phenomenon could have substantial implications for long-run energy trends and for
policies to mitigate carbon emissions. It has thus attracted attention from energy and
carbon policy analysts.
Broadly, four explanations for the drop in energy or carbon intensity, or both, have been
advanced. First, since this period also saw warmer-than-usual weather in the U.S., it is
possible that reduced demand for heating energy accounts for the change in energy
intensity. In addition, warmer weather reduces aggregate carbon emissions indirectly by
reducing the fuel shares of carbon-intensive electricity. Second, a non-weather-related
shift in the fuel mix for electricity generation - toward lower carbon sources - may be a
contributing factor. Third, the past half-decade has also seen accelerated diffusion of
information technology throughout the economy, and corresponding increases in both
labor and multi-factor productivity. It is possible that information technology has also
contributed to increases in energy productivity, so that more economic output is being
i I = E / GDP, G = C / GDP, where E is aggregate energy consumption, and C is aggregate carbon
emissions.1
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Davis, W. Bart; Sanstad, Alan H. & Koomey, Jonathan G. Contributions of weather and fuel mix to recent declines in U.S.energy and carbon intensity, report, October 20, 2002; Berkeley, California. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc878208/m1/2/: accessed April 17, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.