Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets.

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Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an ... continued below

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140 p.

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Darby, John L. September 1, 2006.

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Description

Risk from an act of terrorism is a combination of the likelihood of an attack, the likelihood of success of the attack, and the consequences of the attack. The considerable epistemic uncertainty in each of these three factors can be addressed using the belief/plausibility measure of uncertainty from the Dempster/Shafer theory of evidence. The adversary determines the likelihood of the attack. The success of the attack and the consequences of the attack are determined by the security system and mitigation measures put in place by the defender. This report documents a process for evaluating risk of terrorist acts using an adversary/defender model with belief/plausibility as the measure of uncertainty. Also, the adversary model is a linguistic model that applies belief/plausibility to fuzzy sets used in an approximate reasoning rule base.

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140 p.

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  • Report No.: SAND2006-5777
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • DOI: 10.2172/893554 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 893554
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc876903

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

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  • September 1, 2006

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  • Sept. 21, 2016, 2:29 a.m.

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  • Dec. 7, 2016, 11:16 a.m.

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Darby, John L. Evaluation of risk from acts of terrorism :the adversary/defender model using belief and fuzzy sets., report, September 1, 2006; United States. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc876903/: accessed April 25, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.