Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

Description

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. ... continued below

Creation Information

Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. & Youngs, R.R. May 10, 2006.

Context

This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. More information about this report can be viewed below.

Who

People and organizations associated with either the creation of this report or its content.

Publisher

Provided By

UNT Libraries Government Documents Department

Serving as both a federal and a state depository library, the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department maintains millions of items in a variety of formats. The department is a member of the FDLP Content Partnerships Program and an Affiliated Archive of the National Archives.

Contact Us

What

Descriptive information to help identify this report. Follow the links below to find similar items on the Digital Library.

Description

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

Language

Item Type

Identifier

Unique identifying numbers for this report in the Digital Library or other systems.

  • Report No.: NA
  • Grant Number: NA
  • DOI: 10.2172/893709 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 893709
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc874973

Collections

This report is part of the following collection of related materials.

Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

What responsibilities do I have when using this report?

When

Dates and time periods associated with this report.

Creation Date

  • May 10, 2006

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 21, 2016, 2:29 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • Nov. 29, 2016, 6:30 p.m.

Usage Statistics

When was this report last used?

Yesterday: 0
Past 30 days: 0
Total Uses: 1

Interact With This Report

Here are some suggestions for what to do next.

Start Reading

PDF Version Also Available for Download.

International Image Interoperability Framework

IIF Logo

We support the IIIF Presentation API

Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C. & Youngs, R.R. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard, report, May 10, 2006; Las Vegas, Nevada. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc874973/: accessed September 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.