The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation Page: 4 of 21
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more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve
maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic
IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among
models, and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition and NO2
satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone
concentrations, and high depositions of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface
ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 1.2 ppbv (CLE), and 4.3 2.2 ppbv (A2).
Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone by -2.3 1.1 ppbv. The CLE and
A2 scenarios project further increases in nitrogen critical loads, with particularly large
impacts in Asia where nitrogen emissions and deposition are forecast to increase by a
factor of 1.4 (CLE) to 2 (A2). Climate change may modify surface ozone by -0.8 0.6
ppbv, with larger decreases over sea than over land. This study shows the importance of
enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation, and the major benefits of going
further. Non-attainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the
SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.
Emissions of reactive nitrogen, i.e. nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), generated in the
burning of fossil- and bio-fuels, and ammonia (NH3) volatilized from agricultural
processes, cause a number of environmental problems. Ozone (03) is formed in the
presence of NO,, methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons. 03 is an
important greenhouse gas and is also toxic to humans, animals and plants. The IPCC
Third Assessment Report (1) recognized the intertwined role of CH4 and conventional air
pollutant emissions for climate and air quality. In particular, an evaluation of the high-
emissions IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario showed global mean surface 03 increases
of about 5 ppbv by 2030 and 20 ppbv by 2100 (2). Another associated adverse impact of
the enhanced emissions of NOx and NH3 is the increased long-range transport and
deposition of nitrogen, leading to damaging eutrophication and acidification of
ecosystems and loss of biodiversity (3,4).
In this work we focus on climate change, air quality, and ecosystem exposure to nitrogen
deposition for the year 2030. We use a new set of emission scenarios for CH4, NO,, NH3,
CO, SO2 and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) recently developed at
IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and described by (5). The
scenarios differ substantially from the previous SRES (6) scenarios. In the last few years
increasing air pollution in developing countries has become a public concern (5, and
references therein). As a consequence many of the major rapidly developing countries in
Asia and Latin America have issued legislation on state-of-the-art emission controls.
Upon implementation, these regulations will significantly cap the air pollution emissions
at the regional and global scales. This is the basis of our CLE (Current LEgislation)
scenario. Further, we evaluate the effects of the emissions of a MFR (Maximum
technologically Feasible Reduction) scenario, and contrast it with the pessimistic SRES
A2 scenario. Both CLE and MFR are based on economic and energy use projections
according to the moderate SRES B2 scenario. These emission scenarios were used by 25
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Dentener, F; Stevenson, D; Ellingsen, K; van Joije, T; Schultz, M; Amann, M et al. The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation, article, December 7, 2005; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc873957/m1/4/: accessed January 19, 2019), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.