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The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation

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Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using twenty-five state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, whilst the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models, and show a reasonable ... continued below

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PDF-file: 21 pages; size: 0.7 Mbytes

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Dentener, F; Stevenson, D; Ellingsen, K; van Joije, T; Schultz, M; Amann, M et al. December 7, 2005.

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Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using twenty-five state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, whilst the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models, and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition and NO{sub 2} satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations, and high depositions of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 {+-} 1.2 ppbv (CLE), and 4.3 {+-} 2.2 ppbv (A2). Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone by -2.3 {+-} 1.1 ppbv. The CLE and A2 scenarios project further increases in nitrogen critical loads, with particularly large impacts in Asia where nitrogen emissions and deposition are forecast to increase by a factor of 1.4 (CLE) to 2 (A2). Climate change may modify surface ozone by -0.8 {+-} 0.6 ppbv, with larger decreases over sea than over land. This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation, and the major benefits of going further. Non-attainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.

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PDF-file: 21 pages; size: 0.7 Mbytes

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  • Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 40, no. 11, June 1, 2006, pp. 3586-3594

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  • Report No.: UCRL-JRNL-217619
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 890611
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc873957

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • December 7, 2005

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • Sept. 21, 2016, 2:29 a.m.

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  • Dec. 5, 2016, 6:26 p.m.

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Dentener, F; Stevenson, D; Ellingsen, K; van Joije, T; Schultz, M; Amann, M et al. The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation, article, December 7, 2005; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc873957/: accessed January 24, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.