Climate Change, Nuclear Power and Nuclear Proliferation: Magnitude Matters Page: 4 of 50
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Goldston: Climate Change, Nuclear Power and Nuclear Proliferation
Projections of future electricity use, while subject to the large uncertainties of any long-term
forecasts, are relatively robust against variations in the projected requirement for limitation of
CO2 emission. In the study of electrification by Edmonds et al. (2006), as CO2 emissions are
more severely restricted, overall energy use is depressed. However at the same time the ratio
of electrical power production to total final energy use in 2100 increases from 32% to 60%.
These effects very nearly balance each other, providing a stable projection for future
electricity production.
16000
14000
-Median
20'th Percentile
12000
80'th Percentile
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a8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Figure 1. Electrical power production from EMF 22 models. "GWe-yr/yr" is used to indicate electrical
power production, as opposed to production capacity, often denoted "GWe".
It is valuable to look beyond Edmonds's results of 2006 to the most recent analyses, and to a
wider range of models. The database from the Energy Modeling Forum 22 (EMF 22) study
(Clarke et al., 2009) is a source of such information. Published in late 2009, it includes
modeling results from a large number of different groups around the world, taking into
account multiple energy sources and opportunities for improvements in efficiency. The study
examined a wide range of cases: CO2 constraints were varied from business-as-usual (no
constraint) to atmospheric concentration as low as 450 ppm equivalent; overshoot of CO2
concentration compared with the ultimate goal was allowed or disallowed; and early
participation in emissions constraints was assumed only for developed countries, or full early
participation was assumed. The projection for world electrical energy production, across a
wide range of models with this wide range of constraints, was surprisingly stable. The
variation between models was greater than the variation vs. CO2 and other constraints, and the
direction of variation of electrical energy production as a function of the severity of the CO2
constraint was not consistent. The median projection of electrical energy production from thePage 2 of 46
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Goldston, Robert J. Climate Change, Nuclear Power and Nuclear Proliferation: Magnitude Matters, report, April 28, 2011; Princeton, New Jersey. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc846191/m1/4/: accessed April 23, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.