Mesoscale Simulations of a Wind Ramping Event for Wind Energy Prediction

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Ramping events, or rapid changes of wind speed and wind direction over a short period of time, present challenges to power grid operators in regions with significant penetrations of wind energy in the power grid portfolio. Improved predictions of wind power availability require adequate predictions of the timing of ramping events. For the ramping event investigated here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run at three horizontal resolutions in 'mesoscale' mode: 8100m, 2700m, and 900m. Two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes, the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) schemes, were run at each resolution as well. Simulations were ... continued below

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PDF-file: 14 pages; size: 1.7 Mbytes

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Rhodes, M & Lundquist, J K September 21, 2011.

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Description

Ramping events, or rapid changes of wind speed and wind direction over a short period of time, present challenges to power grid operators in regions with significant penetrations of wind energy in the power grid portfolio. Improved predictions of wind power availability require adequate predictions of the timing of ramping events. For the ramping event investigated here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was run at three horizontal resolutions in 'mesoscale' mode: 8100m, 2700m, and 900m. Two Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes, the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) schemes, were run at each resolution as well. Simulations were not 'tuned' with nuanced choices of vertical resolution or tuning parameters so that these simulations may be considered 'out-of-the-box' tests of a numerical weather prediction code. Simulations are compared with sodar observations during a wind ramping event at a 'West Coast North America' wind farm. Despite differences in the boundary-layer schemes, no significant differences were observed in the abilities of the schemes to capture the timing of the ramping event. As collaborators have identified, the boundary conditions of these simulations probably dominate the physics of the simulations. They suggest that future investigations into characterization of ramping events employ ensembles of simulations, and that the ensembles include variations of boundary conditions. Furthermore, the failure of these simulations to capture not only the timing of the ramping event but the shape of the wind profile during the ramping event (regardless of its timing) indicates that the set-up and execution of such simulations for wind power forecasting requires skill and tuning of the simulations for a specific site.

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PDF-file: 14 pages; size: 1.7 Mbytes

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  • Report No.: LLNL-SR-502791
  • Grant Number: W-7405-ENG-48
  • DOI: 10.2172/1035967 | External Link
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 1035967
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc843782

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  • September 21, 2011

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • May 19, 2016, 3:16 p.m.

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  • Nov. 29, 2016, 8:01 p.m.

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Rhodes, M & Lundquist, J K. Mesoscale Simulations of a Wind Ramping Event for Wind Energy Prediction, report, September 21, 2011; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc843782/: accessed August 18, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.