Lifetime Prediction for Degradation of Solar Mirrors using Step-Stress Accelerated Testing (Presentation)

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This research is to illustrate the use of statistical inference techniques in order to quantify the uncertainty surrounding reliability estimates in a step-stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) scenario. SSADT can be used when a researcher is faced with a resource-constrained environment, e.g., limits on chamber time or on the number of units to test. We apply the SSADT methodology to a degradation experiment involving concentrated solar power (CSP) mirrors and compare the results to a more traditional multiple accelerated testing paradigm. Specifically, our work includes: (1) designing a durability testing plan for solar mirrors (3M's new improved silvered acrylic "Solar ... continued below

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22 p.

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Lee, J.; Elmore, R.; Kennedy, C.; Gray, M. & Jones, W. September 1, 2011.

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Description

This research is to illustrate the use of statistical inference techniques in order to quantify the uncertainty surrounding reliability estimates in a step-stress accelerated degradation testing (SSADT) scenario. SSADT can be used when a researcher is faced with a resource-constrained environment, e.g., limits on chamber time or on the number of units to test. We apply the SSADT methodology to a degradation experiment involving concentrated solar power (CSP) mirrors and compare the results to a more traditional multiple accelerated testing paradigm. Specifically, our work includes: (1) designing a durability testing plan for solar mirrors (3M's new improved silvered acrylic "Solar Reflector Film (SFM) 1100") through the ultra-accelerated weathering system (UAWS), (2) defining degradation paths of optical performance based on the SSADT model which is accelerated by high UV-radiant exposure, and (3) developing service lifetime prediction models for solar mirrors using advanced statistical inference. We use the method of least squares to estimate the model parameters and this serves as the basis for the statistical inference in SSADT. Several quantities of interest can be estimated from this procedure, e.g., mean-time-to-failure (MTTF) and warranty time. The methods allow for the estimation of quantities that may be of interest to the domain scientists.

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22 p.

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  • Presented at the 2011 Workshop on Accelerated Stress Testing and Reliability, 28-30 September 2011, San Francisco, California; Related Information: NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

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  • Report No.: NREL/PR-2C00-52658
  • Grant Number: AC36-08GO28308
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 1024528
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc843141

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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  • September 1, 2011

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • May 19, 2016, 3:16 p.m.

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  • April 4, 2017, 2:08 p.m.

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Lee, J.; Elmore, R.; Kennedy, C.; Gray, M. & Jones, W. Lifetime Prediction for Degradation of Solar Mirrors using Step-Stress Accelerated Testing (Presentation), article, September 1, 2011; Golden, Colorado. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc843141/: accessed October 20, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.