Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

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The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System ... continued below

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10 p.

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Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D. & Milligan, M. July 1, 2012.

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Description

The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

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10 p.

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  • Presented at the 2012 World Renewable Energy Forum, 13-17 May 2012, Denver, Colorado

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  • Report No.: NREL/CP-5500-54384
  • Grant Number: AC36-08GO28308
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 1046875
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc838263

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  • July 1, 2012

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  • May 19, 2016, 9:45 a.m.

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  • April 4, 2017, 12:55 p.m.

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Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D. & Milligan, M. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint, article, July 1, 2012; Golden, Colorado. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc838263/: accessed August 19, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.