Timing is everything : along the fossil fuel transition pathway.

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People save for retirement throughout their career because it is virtually impossible to save all you'll need in retirement the year before you retire. Similarly, without installing incremental amounts of clean fossil, renewable or transformative energy technologies throughout the coming decades, a radical and immediate change will be near impossible the year before a policy goal is set to be in place. Therefore, our research question is,<U+2018>To meet our desired technical and policy goals, what are the factors that affect the rate we must install technology to achieve these goals in the coming decades?' Existing models do not include full … continued below

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65 p.

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Kobos, Peter Holmes; Walker, La Tonya Nicole & Malczynski, Leonard A. October 1, 2013.

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This report is part of the collection entitled: Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports and was provided by the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department to the UNT Digital Library, a digital repository hosted by the UNT Libraries. It has been viewed 81 times. More information about this report can be viewed below.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

People save for retirement throughout their career because it is virtually impossible to save all you'll need in retirement the year before you retire. Similarly, without installing incremental amounts of clean fossil, renewable or transformative energy technologies throughout the coming decades, a radical and immediate change will be near impossible the year before a policy goal is set to be in place. Therefore, our research question is,<U+2018>To meet our desired technical and policy goals, what are the factors that affect the rate we must install technology to achieve these goals in the coming decades?' Existing models do not include full regulatory constraints due to their often complex, and inflexible approaches to solve for<U+2018>optimal' engineering instead of<U+2018>robust' and multidisciplinary solutions. This project outlines the theory and then develops an applied software tool to model the laboratory-to-market transition using the traditional technology readiness level (TRL) framework, but develops subsequent and a novel regulatory readiness level (RRL) and market readiness level (MRL). This tool uses the ideally-suited system dynamics framework to incorporate feedbacks and time delays. Future energy-economic-environment models, regardless of their programming platform, may adapt this software model component framework or<U+2018>module' to further vet the likelihood of new or innovative technology moving through the laboratory, regulatory and market space. The prototype analytical framework and tool, called the Technology, Regulatory and Market Readiness Level simulation model (TRMsim) illustrates the interaction between technology research, application, policy and market dynamics as they relate to a new or innovative technology moving from the theoretical stage to full market deployment. The initial results that illustrate the model's capabilities indicate for a hypothetical technology, that increasing the key driver behind each of the TRL, RRL and MRL components individually decreases the time required for the technology to progress through each component by 63, 68 and 64%, respectively. Therefore, under the current working assumptions, to decrease the time it may take for a technology to move from the conceptual stage to full scale market adoption one might consider expending additional effort to secure regulatory approval and reducing the uncertainty of the technology's demand in the marketplace.

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65 p.

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  • Report No.: SAND2013-8570
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 1096954
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc834861

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • October 1, 2013

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • May 19, 2016, 9:45 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • June 17, 2016, 9:59 p.m.

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Kobos, Peter Holmes; Walker, La Tonya Nicole & Malczynski, Leonard A. Timing is everything : along the fossil fuel transition pathway., report, October 1, 2013; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc834861/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.

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