Development of a statistically based access delay timeline methodology.

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Description

The charter for adversarial delay is to hinder access to critical resources through the use of physical systems increasing an adversary's task time. The traditional method for characterizing access delay has been a simple model focused on accumulating times required to complete each task with little regard to uncertainty, complexity, or decreased efficiency associated with multiple sequential tasks or stress. The delay associated with any given barrier or path is further discounted to worst-case, and often unrealistic, times based on a high-level adversary, resulting in a highly conservative calculation of total delay. This leads to delay systems that require significant ... continued below

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112 p.

Creation Information

Rivera, W. Gary; Robinson, David Gerald; Wyss, Gregory Dane & Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt February 1, 2013.

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  • Sandia National Laboratories
    Publisher Info: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
    Place of Publication: Albuquerque, New Mexico

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Description

The charter for adversarial delay is to hinder access to critical resources through the use of physical systems increasing an adversary's task time. The traditional method for characterizing access delay has been a simple model focused on accumulating times required to complete each task with little regard to uncertainty, complexity, or decreased efficiency associated with multiple sequential tasks or stress. The delay associated with any given barrier or path is further discounted to worst-case, and often unrealistic, times based on a high-level adversary, resulting in a highly conservative calculation of total delay. This leads to delay systems that require significant funding and personnel resources in order to defend against the assumed threat, which for many sites and applications becomes cost prohibitive. A new methodology has been developed that considers the uncertainties inherent in the problem to develop a realistic timeline distribution for a given adversary path. This new methodology incorporates advanced Bayesian statistical theory and methodologies, taking into account small sample size, expert judgment, human factors and threat uncertainty. The result is an algorithm that can calculate a probability distribution function of delay times directly related to system risk. Through further analysis, the access delay analyst or end user can use the results in making informed decisions while weighing benefits against risks, ultimately resulting in greater system effectiveness with lower cost.

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112 p.

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  • Report No.: SAND2013-0940
  • Grant Number: AC04-94AL85000
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 1093701
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc829153

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Office of Scientific & Technical Information Technical Reports

Reports, articles and other documents harvested from the Office of Scientific and Technical Information.

Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI) is the Department of Energy (DOE) office that collects, preserves, and disseminates DOE-sponsored research and development (R&D) results that are the outcomes of R&D projects or other funded activities at DOE labs and facilities nationwide and grantees at universities and other institutions.

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Creation Date

  • February 1, 2013

Added to The UNT Digital Library

  • May 19, 2016, 9:45 a.m.

Description Last Updated

  • June 17, 2016, 3:09 p.m.

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Rivera, W. Gary; Robinson, David Gerald; Wyss, Gregory Dane & Hendrickson, Stacey M. Langfitt. Development of a statistically based access delay timeline methodology., report, February 1, 2013; Albuquerque, New Mexico. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc829153/: accessed October 19, 2017), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.