A Guide to China’s Upcoming Leadership Transitions Page: 2 of 24
This report is part of the collection entitled: Congressional Research Service Reports and was provided to UNT Digital Library by the UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.
Extracted Text
The following text was automatically extracted from the image on this page using optical character recognition software:
A Guide to China's Upcoming Leadership Transitions
Summary
China, the only Communist Party-led nation in the G-20 grouping of maj or economies, is in the
midst of a sweeping set of political transitions that began in 2011 and could conclude as late as
2014. The most important of the transitions is to take place at the next of the Party's quinquennial
national congresses, the 18t' Congress, scheduled to open on November 8, 2012, and at a Central
Committee meeting immediately afterwards, at which the Party is to appoint a new General
Secretary and a new collective leadership. Four months later, at the 12th National People's
Congress in March 2013, China is to appoint new State and National People's Congress leaders.
The Party's new General Secretary, assumed to be Xi Jinping, is expected to be named State
President, while another member of the collective Party leadership, current Vice Premier Li
Keqiang, is expected to be named State Premier. So far unclear is whether China's current top
leader, Hu Jintao, will give up his post overseeing China's military at the 1 8th Party Congress, or
whether he will retain the military job for two more years, until 2014.
The U.S. Congress has a strong interest in China's upcoming leadership transitions. China is the
United States' second largest trading partner and largest supplier of imports, as well as being the
largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Both countries are major players in global efforts to tackle the
European debt crisis, rein in the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, and manage
instability in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring. China's military modernization is
now a factor in U. S. strategic planning. Who the new Chinese leaders are, the inter-personal
dynamics among them, and their policy inclinations will have significant implications for U.S.-
China relations and for the China's role in the Asia-Pacific region and the world. Congress also
has an interest in understanding China's upcoming political transitions as a means of evaluating
China's progress, or lack thereof, toward giving its citizens a meaningful role in the development
of their political system.
This report is intended to provide Congress with a guide to the transitions, covering their distinct
features and specific issues of interest, including the Party's next steps in the ongoing scandal
involving Bo Xilai, the former Chongqing Party Secretary and Politburo member who fell from
grace after his wife was implicated in the murder of a British businessman. This report also
previews some of the challenges facing China's new leaders, starting with the requirement to
consolidate their power. Xi Jinping would be the first top leader in the post-Mao Zedong era not
personally selected by Deng Xiaoping, the dominant political figure of the era. He and his
colleagues will also have to contend with not one but two retired Communist Party General
Secretaries jockeying for influence behind the scenes, and with an irreverent micro-blogging
Chinese public primed to pounce on their mistakes. Policy challenges for China's new leaders
include determining the appropriate role for the state sector in an ambitious shift in economic
growth models, re-conceiving China's foreign policy, and deciding how to respond to growing
public expectations for political reform. The United States has a strong interest in how China's
new leaders choose to approach all those challenges.
Subsequent reports will cover the outcomes of the 1 8 Party Congress and the 12th National
People's Congress. For a detailed discussion of the Chinese political system, please see CRS
Report R41007, Underst~anding China's Political System , by Susan V Lawrence and Michael F.
Martin. For background information about Xi Jinping, the man expected to be named General
Secretary of the Communist Party at the 1 8th Party Congress in November, see CRS Report
R42342, China s Vice President Xi Jinping Visits the United States: What Is at Stake?, by Susan V
Lawrence.Congressional Research Service
Upcoming Pages
Here’s what’s next.
Search Inside
This report can be searched. Note: Results may vary based on the legibility of text within the document.
Tools / Downloads
Get a copy of this page or view the extracted text.
Citing and Sharing
Basic information for referencing this web page. We also provide extended guidance on usage rights, references, copying or embedding.
Reference the current page of this Report.
Lawrence, Susan V. A Guide to China’s Upcoming Leadership Transitions, report, October 16, 2012; Washington D.C.. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc822685/m1/2/: accessed April 18, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.