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U.S. International Trade: Trends and Forecasts
Contents
Most Recent Developments.........................................................................................................1
T rade in G oods................................................................................................................1
Trade in Services.............................................................................................................2
Trade in Goods and Services ...........................................................................................2
The U.S. Deficit in International Trade..................................................................................... 3
Savings Shortfalls and the Trade Deficit ................................................................................4
Implications of the Trade Deficit....................................................................................... 4
T ypes of T rade D ata ..............................................................................................................9
U.S. Merchandise Trade Balance.................................................................................................9
Current Account Balance...........................................................................................................12
Forecasts...................................................................................................................................15
U .S. Trade w ith Selected N ations ..............................................................................................16
Advanced Technology, Autos, and Oil.................................................................................. 22
Some Common Perceptions ................................................................................................. 26
Is the Trade Deficit at a Dangerous Level? ..................................................................... 26
Is Trade with China Merely Replacing That with Southeast Asia?......................................... 28
May Asian Nations Form a Free Trade Agreement Which May Effect U.S. Imports and
Exports to A sian N ations? ................................................................................................. 30
International Trade Statistics Web Resources .......................................................................... 31
Figures
Figure 1. Monthly U.S. Balances of Trade in Goods and Services, 2008 and 2009 .......................3
Figure 2. Month-End Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Against Broad, Major Currencies, and
Other Important Trading Partner Indices, January 2000-July 2009....................................... 6
Figure 3. The Exchange Value of the Chinese Renminbi, Japanese Yen, British Pound,
EU Euro, and Canadian Dollar .............................................................................................7
Figure 4. U.S. Merchandise Exports, Imports, and Trade Balance..............................................10
Figure 5. Annual Growth in U.S. Merchandise Exports and Imports, 1982-2008.......................12
Figure 6. U.S. Current Account and Merchandise Trade Balances..............................................13
Figure 7. U.S. Merchandise Trade and Current Account Deficits, 1982-2010
(Forecast in Current Dollars)..................................................................................................16
Figure 8. U.S. Merchandise Trade Balances With Selected Nations, 2008..................................17
Figure 9. 2008 U.S. Automotive Trade by Major Segment .................................................... 25
Figure 10. The U.S. Current Account Deficit as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product,
1985-20 11 (forecast)..............................................................................................................28Congressional Research Service
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U.S. International Trade: Trends and Forecasts, report, December 14, 2009; Washington D.C.. (https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc810262/m1/3/: accessed April 24, 2024), University of North Texas Libraries, UNT Digital Library, https://digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.