A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States

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A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States (CONUS) is described. The model incorporates both aleatory (random) and epistemic uncertainties associated with quantifying the tornado wind hazard parameters. The temporal occurrences of tornadoes within the continental United States (CONUS) is assumed to be a Poisson process. A spatial distribution of tornado touchdown locations is developed empirically based on the observed historical events within the CONUS. The hazard model is an aerial probability model that takes into consideration the size and orientation of the facility, the length and width of the tornado damage area (idealized as a rectangle ... continued below

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Hossain, Q; Kimball, J; Mensing, R & Savy, J April 19, 1999.

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Description

A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States (CONUS) is described. The model incorporates both aleatory (random) and epistemic uncertainties associated with quantifying the tornado wind hazard parameters. The temporal occurrences of tornadoes within the continental United States (CONUS) is assumed to be a Poisson process. A spatial distribution of tornado touchdown locations is developed empirically based on the observed historical events within the CONUS. The hazard model is an aerial probability model that takes into consideration the size and orientation of the facility, the length and width of the tornado damage area (idealized as a rectangle and dependent on the tornado intensity scale), wind speed variation within the damage area, tornado intensity classification errors (i.e.,errors in assigning a Fujita intensity scale based on surveyed damage), and the tornado path direction. Epistemic uncertainties in describing the distributions of the aleatory variables are accounted for by using more than one distribution model to describe aleatory variations. The epistemic uncertainties are based on inputs from a panel of experts. A computer program, TORNADO, has been developed incorporating this model; features of this program are also presented.

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134 Kilobytes

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  • United States - Japan Joint Panel Meeting on Seismic & Wind Engineering, Tsukuba, Japan, May 9-14, 1999

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  • Other: DE00008856
  • Report No.: UCRL-JC-133566
  • Grant Number: W-7405-Eng-48
  • Office of Scientific & Technical Information Report Number: 8856
  • Archival Resource Key: ark:/67531/metadc794670

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  • April 19, 1999

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  • Dec. 19, 2015, 7:14 p.m.

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  • May 6, 2016, 11:23 p.m.

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Hossain, Q; Kimball, J; Mensing, R & Savy, J. A probabilistic tornado wind hazard model for the continental United States, article, April 19, 1999; Livermore, California. (digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc794670/: accessed June 19, 2018), University of North Texas Libraries, Digital Library, digital.library.unt.edu; crediting UNT Libraries Government Documents Department.